25/01/052️⃣4️⃣ Year Market Operation Summary and Outlook for 2️⃣5️⃣ Year Market Trends
What is happening now is very similar to the period at the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024.
In terms of growth: the increase from 24900 to 49000 and from 52500 to 108353 is about double.
In terms of patterns: after a 224-day oscillation in the range of 24900—31800, it broke through; the rising flag pattern oscillated for 238 days in the range of 49000—74000.
After breaking through 40,000 in 23, it formed a spreading triangle; after breaking through 90,000 in 24, it also formed a spreading triangle, which lasts about 35 days.
In terms of timing: previously, we mentioned that after oscillating for more than 7 months, the beginning of each month tends to have turning points, so the probability of a turning point in the first week of next month is relatively high. (This was mentioned in the article on 24/12/29, reminding that the adjustment is about to end, and it is the best time to buy in batches for bottom-fishing, coinciding with the crypto president taking office during the Spring Festival!)
After a long march of more than ten years, the Bitcoin spot ETF was really approved by the SEC on January 10, 2024. After surging to 49000 on January 11, it dipped downwards. On the 12th, we reminded that Grayscale's GBTC had security risks and significant selling pressure, leading to several months of selling by Grayscale, which also directly affected the high-level oscillation market from March to June.
Later, after a retracement to a low of 38500, we reminded to fill the gap of 39200—40300; we believe that every year has a Spring Festival market, and 20—23 have experienced the same; we also believe there will be a market in the 2024 Spring Festival. During the false break below 38555, we entered at 39500, but I saw that near 48000, it was time to reduce positions. (Although the forecast had some errors), but the subsequent inflow of ETF funds directly broke through, pushing up to 50000—52000 in oscillation, continuing to turn bullish.
Afterward, Bitcoin started a consecutive few days with a breakout of 3000—4000 points each day, breaking through the previous bull market high of 69000 to reach a peak of 73777.
24/03/05 Morgan Stanley will launch an ETF, and Bitcoin is approaching its previous high. Is there a chance to break 80,000 before the halving? Prices are rising continuously, and risks are increasing.
23/03/08 Egypt's currency collapsed, plummeting by 40%, and Bitcoin's previous high was rejected in a one-day event; beware of short-term retracement risks?
24/03/11 BTC hit a new high of 70,000, but the weekend rebound was rejected again; beware of short-term retracement risks.
24/03/15 The pullback is for better upward movement; BTC's weekly potential cup and handle pattern is one of the sustained bullish patterns.
On 24/03/06, when the 10,000-point pin appeared, I reminded that the higher we go, the greater the risks; beware of short-term retracement risks! Reduce positions to play short-term. It's particularly worth mentioning that after hitting the high of 73777 on March 14, I reminded the weekly cup and handle pattern the next day, which is one of the sustained bullish patterns; I was also one of the first bloggers to firmly predict the cup and handle pattern and remain bullish.
At that time, there were two viewpoints.
1. According to wave market theory, a 20% retracement would be 59000, and a 30% retracement would be 51000.
2. According to the cup and handle pattern, a major market retracement of 1/3 or 1/2 would be at positions 57000 and 44500.
In this market, we know that after the lowest pin at 49000, it rebounded and then retraced to 52500 before starting to oscillate upward.
The time spent in high-level oscillation far exceeds our expectations; for more details, see (2024/07/10 Half-Year Market Operation Summary and Outlook for the Second Half Market Trends).
On August 5th, after the pin at 49000, it continued to drop to 52500; at that time, I continued to be bearish, but after the subsequent rebound and a quick recovery after the pin at 55555, I turned completely bullish, looking towards 59500—70000.
24/09/12 The U.S. stock market 'Big V Tianlong' linkage, BTC channel + head and shoulders bottom breakout; how long can this rebound last?
24/10/11 BTC's downward momentum is weakening, with expectations of a W bottom near 60,000; opportunities for gradual layout at low levels.
24/10/12 BTC's false breakdown rebounded by 4500 points; the daily downtrend line is under pressure; pay attention to rebound opportunities after the retracement.
24/10/15 Bitcoin is about to break through 66500; the bearish deep-sea crab points to 70,000; do not easily discard cheap chips.
24/11/07 BTC is expected to surge to 100,000 in the fourth quarter, ETH rebounds back to 2800; how to seize the rebound of the oversold altcoins?
On November 6th, Trump won the election; the weekly cup and handle pattern + rising flag breakout coincided with the recent market, replicating the trends of 2023.
24/12/11 BTC pin and double-check is temporarily effective, about to challenge the previous high pressure again; how to grasp the Spring Festival red envelope market?
24/12/12 BTC's perfect prediction of the market's anticipation; ETH's rebound tests the upward trend; how to grasp the market as interest rate cuts approach?
24/12/18 BTC's critical moment is approaching, with support rising to 103000; pay attention to a downward adjustment.
24/12/19 The market indeed replicated the routine of 2023; BTC's decline has just begun, laying the groundwork for the 25-year Spring Festival red envelope market!
24/12/20 BTC sharply adjusted by 12,000 points, ETH broke below the M head and shoulders neckline; is there a bottom-fishing opportunity after the Christmas festival?
After saying so much, it's still more straightforward to look at the charts.
25/01/01 BTC daily line engulfs pattern, 4H potential descending wedge and bat pattern, short-term crazy washing to clear leverage.
25/01/02 BTC's retracement may have ended, and the Spring Festival red envelope market will open; is the altcoin season of 25 worth looking forward to? More exciting content will continue to be output...
In 2025, time flies, pursuing dreams, with opportunities and challenges coexisting; predictions for the 25th year!
1. The peak of the BTC bull market is 180,000—250,000, but there will be at least one 30—40% retracement in between!
2. ETH staking revenue will increase through ETF approval, pushing ETH prices to rise to 8000—10,000!
3. Currently, there are expectations for 5 altcoins to have ETFs, but at least one altcoin ETF will pass!
4. MicroStrategy has already been included in the Nasdaq index, and the next is Coinbase to be included in the S&P 500 index!
5. The countries or regions that approve the BTC spot ETF in 25 will double!
6. The number of listed companies participating directly or indirectly in purchasing Bitcoin has multiplied!
7. The use of stablecoins will surge; banks may issue stablecoins, but Tether will still maintain its leading position!
8. The U.S. passed stablecoin legislation, while broader market infrastructure reforms (FIT21) have been postponed!
9. AI + and tokenized real-world assets (RWA) remain the main theme!
10. In 2025, Trump will not include Bitcoin in the strategic reserves!$BTC #比特币走势观察 #AIAgent热潮 #SUI创新高 #加密市场反弹
