#PENGUN

🤯 How I Got the Next Candlestick Prediction Wrong for $PENGU / $USDC

Today I bring you an analysis that went wrong and I want to share (people here usually only show what's right) how my interpretation of the PENGU/USDC chart ended up leading me to a wrong prediction. Part of learning in the market is understanding where we went wrong in order to improve in the future.

My Interpretation: Ascending Wedge

When analyzing the chart, I identified what appeared to be an ascending wedge, a chart pattern that usually indicates a bearish reversal. This pattern is characterized by two converging ascending trendlines, with the price forming lower highs and higher lows, signaling a possible exhaustion of buying power.

With the RSI already in the overbought zone (87.37) and the price near the resistance of the wedge, I projected that the next move would be a pullback, breaking the support of the pattern (lower trendline) and confirming the complete formation of the wedge.

What Really Happened?

As soon as the next candle was formed, the price broke the upper resistance line (upper trendline of the wedge) with force, generating an explosive move to the upside and completely invalidating my pullback prediction.

The breakout showed that the pattern I identified was not an ascending wedge, but rather an uptrend channel with strong momentum, indicating that buying pressure was still dominating the market.

Why Did I Get It Wrong?

1. Pattern Confusion:

I misinterpreted the move as an ascending wedge, when in fact the price was moving within an uptrend channel with strong signs of an uptrend breakout.

2. Underestimated Momentum:

Buying pressure was much greater than the reversal signals suggested by the elevated RSI or the shape of the chart.

3. Ignored Breakout Signals:

The increased volume and proximity of resistance indicated the possibility of a breakout that went unnoticed in my analysis.