📣 2024.12.28 (Saturday) Macroeconomic Daily 📣
📈 Market Performance
📘 US stock market three major indexes closed lower:
- The Dow fell 0.77%, the Nasdaq fell 1.49%, the S&P 500 fell 1.11%, the Russell 2000 fell 1.56%. The US dollar index fell 0.07%, at 108.0151.
- The 2-year US Treasury yield fell by 0.10 basis points, at 4.33%, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 4.30 basis points, at 4.627%, VIX rose 8.28%, at 15.95.
- Brent crude rose 1.06%, at 73.62, London gold fell 0.43%, at 2621.348.
📘 Chinese concept stocks generally fell:
- The US dollar fell 25 basis points against the offshore RMB, at 7.3006.
- The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 1.54%, Pinduoduo fell 1.44%, Alibaba fell 1.18%, JD fell 3.18%, NetEase fell 0.90%, Li Auto rose 0.67%, Xpeng fell 4.75%, NIO fell 4.48%.
📘 A-shares mixed, Hong Kong stocks mixed:
- The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.06%, the CSI 300 fell 0.16%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.22%.
- The Hang Seng Index fell 0.04%, the Hang Seng Tech rose 0.69%.
📘 European stock markets generally rose:
- The UK FTSE 100 rose 0.16%, France's CAC40 rose 1.00%, Germany's DAX rose 0.68%.
- The euro rose 0.04% against the US dollar, at 1.0427.
📘 Japan and South Korea, as well as emerging markets mixed:
- The Nikkei 225 index rose 1.80%, the Korean composite index fell 1.02%, India's SENSEX30 rose 0.29%, Indonesia's composite index fell 0.41%, Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh index rose 0.18%, Mexico's MXX fell 0.49%.
📍📍 Key Focus
📘 The People's Bank of China: Implement a moderately loose monetary policy, comprehensively use various monetary policy tools, and maintain ample liquidity.
Recently, the People's Bank of China released the (China Financial Stability Report (2024)). The report pointed out the need to continuously promote the high-quality development of the bond market, improve the legal system of the bond market, and consolidate the legal foundation of corporate credit bonds. Steadily advance the reform and development of the stock market, promote the deep implementation of the stock issuance registration system, strengthen the supervision of the entire issuance and listing chain, and evaluate and improve related mechanism arrangements.
📘 "New Federal Reserve News Agency": The Federal Reserve is trying to assess the impact of Trump.
As the New Year approaches, Powell finds himself in a dilemma regarding how to address potential inflation pressures from Trump's policies without openly defying him. On the 27th local time, Nick Timiraos, known as the "New Federal Reserve News Agency," published an article stating that the Federal Reserve is trying to reassess the impact of Trump's new government on the US economy and inflation. Powell is attempting to avoid conflict with Donald Trump, even though some of his colleagues express concerns that the president-elect's policies may reignite inflationary pressures.
📘 Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: To promote the construction of computing power centers by 2025, and to introduce policies for the quantum industry.
The meeting stated that policies for innovative development in fields such as biomanufacturing, quantum industry, embodied intelligence, and atomic-level manufacturing should be formulated and implemented. The "Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing" initiative will be implemented, strengthening the layout and key scene applications of general large models and industry large models.
📘 Yellen warns Congress: The debt ceiling will resurface in mid-January next year, and the Treasury will have to use extraordinary measures to avoid default.
On December 27, Friday, US Eastern Time, the US Treasury Department's official website announced that Yellen sent a letter to the bipartisan leaders of Congress regarding the debt ceiling issue. The bill passed in June last year temporarily suspended the effectiveness of the debt ceiling, which will expire on January 1, 2025. Therefore, starting January 2, 2025, the debt ceiling will resume its restriction on all statutory unpaid debts that end on January 1. The US Treasury currently expects to reach the new debt ceiling between January 14 and January 23, at which point the Treasury will need to begin taking extraordinary measures to prevent the US from defaulting on its debt.
📅 This week's key events (GMT+8)