Let's understand a few things:
❖ 1. This cycle can be divided into two parts.
Part 1: Bitcoin rises and altcoins bleed (dominant pump)
Part 2: Bitcoin breaks new highs, and altcoins begin the parabolic phase.
❖ 2. Capital flow:
1. The bull market begins (end of 2023), Bitcoin hits bottom, recovers the range, and surges to a higher peak, while altcoins fall relative to Bitcoin and dominance.
2. After Bitcoin (now) breaks new highs, capital flows into major altcoins. The total (top 100 altcoins minus BTC/ETH) chart shows a strong rise, but it is still mainly driven by major pumps (this time it is XRP).
3. Finally, the capital inflow of Bitcoin and major currencies is into mid to low market cap altcoins.
Everyone is very greedy. They want more and will chase altcoins.
❖ I fully expect that 'others' (mid to small market cap altcoins) will hit new highs. The top Altseason is still ahead.
In each cycle of ETHBTC, Ethereum bleeds ahead (BTC pumps but is below the old high), then bottoms and surges as BTC stays above the previous high. It looks like this cycle is the same here. I expect that once ETHBTC truly begins to rise, there will be more capital inflow.
ETHBTC chart (previously posted many times. I also marked the breakout timing) did not break the 4th phase in 2021. We can conduct the 5th phase super run in this cycle = breaking the downtrend.
We will break the 1100-day bear market trend.
The year of Ethereum's ETF is the same; I strongly believe many have underestimated ETH.
❖ So, I think it’s not too late, because:
1. I still believe Bitcoin has room to rise.
2. Still expect capital to shift to mid to low market cap altcoins, so the most profitable phase has not yet arrived.
- Dominance breaks further, ETHBTC moves upwards.
In the coming months, the altcoin market will seek an opportunity for a violent acceleration in rising.
❖ Everyone needs to do this to control profits:
1. Do not indulge in leverage.
2. Buy in red, sell in green.
3. Do not get hot-headed and easily trust others to change positions.
4. Make your own withdrawal plan!
5. Do not, do not, do not be easily influenced by someone's survivor bias story of making a million dollars effortlessly.
6. Working in our industry is like licking blood off a knife's edge; if you make independent decisions, it will be the knife's edge of licking blood!
7. This holding time is not long. Looking back, it hasn't even been six months! Everyone hasn't really experienced a long bear market holding!
8. Remember everything I said, and you will smoothly obtain the next large amounts of unreasonable wealth that do not belong to you!