Editor's note: The crypto market goes through four stages: rebirth, excitement, ecstasy, and rupture. The first stage is bear market fatigue, and the market rebounds, but most people are unaware of it; the second stage, the market gradually recovers, but generally do not believe that the bull market is coming; the third stage, prices rise, market sentiment is high, but speculators have not yet poured in ; Stage 4, the market is frantic, speculators and large companies have entered one after another, and bubbles have begun to form. It is recommended to focus on your own strategy, avoid blindly following the trend, enjoy this short period of prosperity, and be prepared to deal with future changes.
The following is the original content (the original content has been edited for ease of reading and understanding):
There are four stages to a bull market, welcome to stage 3
Fasten your seatbelts, we've just entered the most exciting part.
Stage 1: Rebirth
To review, Phase 1 is “Rebirth”, which takes place from January 2023 to January 2024. In the "rebirth" stage, the market is generally filled with a sense of bear market fatigue, and apathy dissolves all narratives. Your friends and the media are still watching the bear market collapse, and the wave of layoffs continues.
Yet prices are quietly recovering, with Bitcoin tripling. But you barely notice it because the whole thing is still losing money. Only experienced crypto users who have experienced more than two cycles realize that the bull market has begun, and most people still do not believe that this is a bull market.
Stage 2: Excitement
This phase began in February 2024 and ended last week with some coins approaching all-time highs and market narratives returning, albeit only a few each quarter. Everyone in the crypto industry understands that we have entered a bull market,
But the strange thing is that your friends still haven't messaged you.
You're teetering between excitement and anxiety. Layoffs are mostly over, but hiring hasn't restarted yet. The entire industry appears closed: no one is leaving, and no one is joining. Life is generally good, your crypto buddies are profiting, it’s the calm before the storm.
Stage 3: Ecstasy
We are now at the stage where the ecstasy officially begins with the presidential election on November 5th. Everyone is making money, but speculators haven't yet arrived in force. Enjoy this moment because it will be fleeting.
Your holdings are about to break through to all-time highs (if they haven’t already), and there used to be some new market narrative every quarter, and now there’s a new narrative every week. Eventually, these narratives will become daily updates. No more narrative fatigue – just an endless stream of “good” ideas.
Everyone with a following becomes a “genius” and comes up with a new market narrative. There's always someone out there making money on the week's hot coin, and there's no doubt they'll be hyping it up, which can be frustrating. (But remember, everyone has coins to sell, and no one posts their losses.)
New narratives bring new coins, and every day a certain coin goes up, but most of them you don’t hold. Even if you had an 8% gain for the week, you would still be upset that you missed out on [hot new coin]. New dollars + new narrative = FOMO (fear of missing out), and if you’re not careful, FOMO will eat you up.
Some advice: Understand your investing style and its pros and cons.
What if you trade every day? Know that your work and mental health will be affected.
What if you are building a project? Know that you may miss out on some big opportunities.
There are pros and cons to each approach – understand these.
Don't try to do everything.
Back in Phase 3, the private markets are about to get hot. It all starts with the asset allocator. They realized on November 6 that they were investing too conservatively in cryptocurrencies. They started contacting VCs and hedge funds asking for more allocations. These firms are announcing new funds sooner than you might expect.
Source: Blockbeats
Late-stage venture capital has been stagnant for the past two-plus years, and now it’s making a comeback. Large funds and an open IPO market mean Series B to D companies can raise capital again, and large rounds will once again become the norm. Series A deals will also be closed quickly, which will attract new world-class founders to join.
Source: Blockbeats
Recruitment competition has become extremely fierce, and protocol parties will provide attractive token compensation packages for top talents.
If you're a founder, you only have 3 to 6 months at most (probably less) to recruit the best talent at a reasonable salary, and then you're just playing catch-up.
We are entering the mainstream again, Forbes, Bloomberg, CNBC... they are starting to be enthusiastic about cryptocurrencies. Your friend sends you a message talking about Cardano, your financial advisor recommends allocating 5% of your funds to Bitcoin, and traditional finance begins to compete to "tokenize" various assets. Then, at some point in the middle of 2025, something strange started happening.
Stage 4: Fracture
The Fortune 500 announced massive purchases of Bitcoin, athletes and artists began to participate — and cryptocurrencies infiltrated the culture. VCs no longer do due diligence, speculators raise millions and take center stage. Some random coins went up 10x in a week.
In Stage 4, everyone begins to believe that the market will rise forever, and illusions permeate decision-making. This stage can also be called "crazy" and everything no longer makes sense. Where once there was a new market narrative every week, now everything has become one giant narrative.
You have more money than you ever imagined, and your high school classmate launched a token that has made him worth tens of millions. A veteran player acquires a sports team, Bieber launches a decentralized social platform, LeBron James launches a meme coin, and companies spend billions on marketing.
Source: Blockbeats
So buckle up, the next 12 months are going to be crazy. For those who focus, 2025 could be a life-changing year. But if you’re not careful, stage 4 arrogance and laziness can have serious consequences. Finally, remember to stop and enjoy it once in a while. Now, let's start building.
Original link: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz/status/1855713970184942006
[Disclaimer] There are risks in the market, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice and users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions contained in this article are appropriate for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly and do so at your own risk.
This article is reprinted with permission from: (Blockbeats)
Original author: Zhouzhou
“There are four major stages of the cryptocurrency bull market! What stage is it now? How do you seize the opportunity?" This article was first published in "CryptoCity"
