Recently, I have observed subtle changes in the crypto market. Bitcoin has broken its historical high, and market attention on it has peaked, but its dominance is gradually declining. Meanwhile, many altcoins have started to rise in price. This phenomenon leads me to wonder whether the entire crypto market is entering an altcoin season? Many market analysts have suggested 'buy and hold' altcoins, believing that by the end of November, we may witness the arrival of altcoin season. As an investor, I am weighing these views and analyzing the trends behind the data, hoping to seize opportunities in this wave.
First, I am focusing on the upcoming technical indicators for Bitcoin. Crypto market analyst MikyBull Crypto recently mentioned that Bitcoin's MACD indicator is approaching a bearish crossover point, which has historically often been a precursor to altcoin season. When bearish signals appear in the Bitcoin market, substantial funds may flow from Bitcoin to the altcoin market, boosting altcoin prices. Previous altcoin booms have all started when Bitcoin's dominance weakened. I believe this time Bitcoin's situation is also worth paying attention to.
From a data perspective, to confirm the arrival of altcoin season, it usually requires at least 75% of the top altcoins to outperform Bitcoin in terms of price increase. In other words, at least 33 out of the top 50 market cap altcoins need to perform well to establish altcoin season. However, currently, this number remains at 19, although it shows an upward trend, it has not yet reached the official confirmation standard. All of this indicates that the performance of altcoins remains to be observed; perhaps it has not fully erupted but is already gathering strength.
I am looking forward to the market in the coming weeks, especially in the context of a pullback in Bitcoin's dominance. Funds in the market are starting to flow into altcoins, and the outflow of funds from Bitcoin may accelerate in the near future, further driving the overall trend of altcoins. Analyst IncomeSharks also expressed optimism about this. They suggest that investors enter the altcoin market before November arrives, as the overall trend of altcoins may gradually rise as the month progresses. This 'buy and hold' strategy for altcoins is worth noting, especially when Bitcoin's dominance is fluctuating.
I have observed that the current market atmosphere is also changing. The impact of the election year cannot be ignored, especially since the period after the election usually brings a more relaxed investment atmosphere. From historical data of past elections, risk assets typically receive some support after the election year, which is also a positive signal for the cryptocurrency market. As the dust settles from the elections, I believe the market may gradually shift towards risk assets, and the altcoin market may welcome a rising period.
However, I also maintain the necessary caution. Although altcoins are performing well currently, we have not fully confirmed whether altcoin season has truly arrived. The decline in Bitcoin's dominance has indeed brought opportunities for altcoins, but the rise in Bitcoin's price may also create a 'siphoning effect' in the market, causing some funds to flow toward it rather than into altcoins. If institutional investors further increase their investment in Bitcoin in the coming months, it may delay the full arrival of altcoin season. In fact, many in the market are speculating that if Bitcoin's dominance rises again, the 'altcoin season' may have to wait until 2025 to become a reality.
Therefore, my strategy is to remain flexible. In the crypto market, the winds change rapidly. It is not yet the time for large-scale buying of altcoins, but I will gradually diversify my investment into some altcoins with high growth potential, while closely monitoring changes in Bitcoin's dominance. Besides the MACD indicator, I will also pay attention to other signals, such as BTC's liquidity and shifts in market sentiment.
In terms of investment strategy, I plan to focus more on several specific altcoins. First are the larger market cap altcoins, as these tend to be more resilient and have greater liquidity. Secondly, I will pay attention to projects that are active in technological innovation and ecological development, as these coins are gaining more market attention. Some Ethereum competitor chains, DeFi projects, and meme tokens are on my watchlist, as these sectors are expected to attract more investors in the coming months.
In terms of operation, considering the current market volatility, I plan to adopt a 'buy low, sell high' strategy, maintaining flexible positions. For some short-term opportunities, I will act quickly to enter and exit; whereas for medium to long-term promising coins, I will gradually build positions with a 'buy and hold' approach. This strategy allows me to accommodate the rapid fluctuations of the market while ensuring I do not miss out on significant gains when altcoin season arrives.
Looking ahead, if the market can further signal a flow of funds into altcoins, I may gradually increase my positions. However, as it stands, although Bitcoin's dominance has declined, it has not completely dissipated. If institutional interest in Bitcoin rises again, the arrival of altcoin season will be delayed. I will closely monitor the movements of large funds and market sentiment, and once I see strong altcoin signals, I will be ready to adjust my positions accordingly.
In summary, the crypto market is tumultuous, and although the altcoin season has not fully arrived, its footsteps are approaching. In the coming weeks, I will continue to pay attention to Bitcoin's market movements and the performance of altcoins, hoping to catch the next possible investment opportunity.
