Following Trump's presidential victory, the prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin have surged significantly, with market sentiment showing 'extreme greed', particularly as Bitcoin's open contracts surged by 9.30%, indicating that market speculation has reached a peak. Nowadays, top traders on Binance are also leaning bullish, reflecting strong market confidence in cryptocurrencies. According to the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index, the market is in the extreme greed zone, which raises my concerns about a pullback.
Despite this, Bitcoin's MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value ratio) indicates that the current price is still quite a distance from its historical highs, suggesting that Bitcoin still has upside potential. The overall value of the cryptocurrency market has surpassed $2.47 trillion, with a 24-hour increase of up to 5.55%. In the stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has also seen a significant surge, reaching new highs. All of this indicates that the current upward momentum in the market is not yet overheated.
From a technical perspective, although Bitcoin's price has soared to new highs, analysis from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant indicates that it is still not overvalued, showing room for further increases. Nevertheless, I personally believe that Bitcoin may face pullback risks in the short term. Arthur Azizov, CEO of B2BINPAY, also stated that a significant pullback in Bitcoin is expected this weekend or early next week. Analysis shows that there is a large amount of undiscovered liquidity below the current Bitcoin price, while the liquidity above has already been absorbed, which may mean that the price needs to decline to maintain healthy growth.
Looking ahead, although there are short-term pullback risks, I believe that by the end of the year, the price of Bitcoin is likely to be between $80,000 and $90,000. This prediction is based on the current market trends and fundamental analysis. With the policy changes brought about by Trump's victory, I believe the cryptocurrency market will see more opportunities, especially as the government's attitude towards crypto assets becomes more favorable.
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