With Trump’s presidential win confirmed, Bitcoin’s price has reached a new high. Following this news, the Coinbase Premium surged from negative to positive, showing a sharp increase in buying pressure. This can be interpreted as an upward movement in price led by U.S. investors (Chart 1).
While the label of a “pro-crypto” president has heightened optimism among crypto market participants, it would be an oversimplification to attribute this entirely to the “Trump effect.” Therefore, here are some meaningful on-chain metrics from a bullish perspective.
I often look at the UTXO Age Bands when analyzing market sentiment, as these movements are key indicators of Bitcoin’s price trends. Long-term holders who have held for more than six months have accumulated enough. With the recent price rise, they now seem to be redistributing Bitcoin to new investors Chart 2).
Historically, the influx of new investors has triggered Bitcoin’s price increases. Now, as Bitcoin hits a new all-time high, we are seeing a rapid rise in new investor participation (Chart 3).
At this point, nearly all investors are in profit, which is likely to trigger FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) among those who have not yet entered the market. If Bitcoin’s price embarks on a substantial rally, the percentage of UTXOs in profit could remain between 90-100% for an extended period (Chart 4).
Finally, I would like to emphasize that new investors driven by FOMO may risk losses from over-leveraged investments and could face a prolonged bear market where funds remain locked for two or more years. As with any investment—especially in cryptocurrencies—it’s essential to conduct thorough research, consider one’s own risk tolerance, and rely on objective data, such as on-chain metrics, to make informed decisions.
Written by Avocado_onchain
