$BTC $ETH

11.09 Midnight Analysis Issue 64

Good late night, cryptocurrency traders!

Tonight I've been busy helping people cut losses on their short positions and lost track of time.

The stance is clear, still bearish. This round went short from 747 to 77000, a $3000 drop, and faced three hits. Although the first short was at 703, which directly dropped by $1500, I sold half and hit the stop loss. Then during the election, I expect a pullback to 648 before looking at 80,000. In the meantime, I indicated that the market may consolidate and I could buy long, but only started at 747, which went against the trend to 77000. Indeed, the direction was wrong, and it was exhausting to trade, but chasing highs above 75000 is definitely not my style. Therefore, I firmly believe that this position can make profits on long and short trades. This one-sided trend cannot continue indefinitely.

With the 10th approaching, there is a risk of a pullback late tonight and tomorrow. Bitcoin has shown continuous divergence; unless it pushes up to 80,000 to pull the moving averages up, otherwise it will be at a weekly divergence level. Based on the current pattern, the market is continuously compressing, waiting for a change.

Let’s look at the cost-effectiveness: above 77, it’s just 78-79 at most; below, it could easily see a rise from 5000 to 7000.

Currently, there isn’t much room for further upward movement. Last night, I mentioned shorting if it broke the previous high of 76900, and after midnight I kept waiting for that high, so I chose to short at 76950. I had a previous position in Sol at 204.5, noticed it wasn’t dropping further and took profit; when it rose but didn’t break 205, I shorted again.

This pullback, if it breaks below 75, may see a rebound at 74410, oscillating to choose a direction. If it pulls back to 727-715, I will start to close weekly positions; if it cannot close above 71500, this door-to-door market may extend towards 70,000.

Ethereum is rallying aggressively, all the way exploding short positions. This round of strength is purely about exploding shorts, reaching 3058, but not breaking above 3200. According to the monthly line, it hasn't reached the Prague upgrade narrative initiation, and it's unlikely to hit 4000. It’s either that BlackRock is FOMO buying Bitcoin like crazy. Thus, a pullback to 2800 is at least expected. How it rises is how it will fall; it never lets those who are optimistic about one-sided trends be completely satisfied. Bitcoin’s corrections mean Ethereum cannot have an independent market movement.

For Sol, I will continue to watch 185-183.