$ETH

Reflections on Holding Through Ethereum:

These past two days, there has been a patient at home that needs care for a few days. I will continue to update at midnight, but there will be fewer posts during the day, and I can’t pay attention to the comments section for now. Please understand.

Now I’m giving an early warning on Ethereum!

As everyone knows, at 2535 I had a short position at 2560 which I stopped out, but last night I found that some people are still holding, so I need to raise the alarm 🚨!

Analyzing the pros and cons:
Everyone is waiting for the triple bottom at 2200 for Ethereum, but it hasn’t come. The bearish sentiment is particularly severe, basically a one-sided state. So, this is the most dangerous situation. Previously criticized, but many have also bought with leverage, and since it fell from 27 to 23, the rebound has been in shorts. Some people, including myself, made a basic mistake here.

Pros: Shorting from 25 to 23 gives just a $200 profit.
Cons: If you want to hold a short from 25, where do you have to hold it? At least $200, and no one can be 100% sure it won't go up to 3000. Or even higher?

On the other hand, if you hold a long from 25, down to 2200, even if it goes to 2000, in a bull market, if you are stuck in a long position: using a half-position short to hedge all the way down might be safer; there will always be a day for a bull market to rise again!

If a short position gets stuck, it will require a longer period and higher costs to control risks. Especially if you don't have any spot assets, that’s high risk with low return!

So, to anyone who asked yesterday what to do, this is what I said: balance out your longs and shorts first. Even if you don’t have a good outlook, don’t short it here anymore.

As for Bitcoin, regarding the viewpoint of forced liquidation at a low price, I mentioned that on the 15-minute level, there could be a pullback for some longs. If it goes up, you can take a profit of $1500. I checked, and from last night to today, it could yield two rounds, nearly $3000 in profit. Converted to the cost of shorts, it also helped reduce the trapped range of shorts by $1500. As for the forced liquidation price at 80-90k, there’s no need to panic; just operate within a large range, waiting near 709, to take around $2000 in profit. Ultimately, it won't be so outrageous as to go directly to 80-90k.