According to BlockBeats, the United States will commence its 2024 presidential election on Tuesday, November 5. Current major polls indicate a tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reveals that hedge funds and managers have accumulated $18 billion in long positions on the dollar ahead of the election. Wall Street strategists generally believe that Trump's tariff promises will support the dollar in the short term. Hedge funds and other speculative traders anticipate that the election's impact on demand for safe-haven assets and tariff directions will further boost the dollar.
The market consensus is that Trump's proposal to lower corporate taxes would benefit corporate profits, thus boosting U.S. stocks if he wins. Conversely, Harris's potential tax increase policy is seen as bearish for the stock market. However, recent opinions from Bank of America and Citigroup analysts suggest otherwise. Analyst Marc Chandler noted, 'Many potential positives for next week have already been priced in, so the risk is skewed to the downside. Gold recently hit a record high but failed to break $2,800. Notably, when U.S. stocks fell on October 31, gold also saw significant sell-offs, almost as if it was being liquidated to meet margin requirements.'
