This year's presidential race is heated and ongoing polls reflect the division of opinions on who should become the nation's next commander-in-chief.
It's officially mid-October - just weeks ahead of the 2024 general election. Here is what the polls, odds and a historian have said over the past seven weeks and how they continue to change as we head toward Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 5.
Who is leading in the polls and favored by the odds?
ABC News project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls 48.5% over Trump 46.1% - by 2.4% - compared to 48.5% over Trump 45.9% compared to Harris 48.5% over Trump 45.8% two weeks ago compared to Harris 48.3% over Trump 45.6% three weeks ago, compared to Harris 48.3% over Trump 45.3% four weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% over Trump 44.4% five weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% over Trump at 43.9% six weeks ago, or compared to Harris 47.0% over Trump at 43.7% seven weeks ago
270towin shows Harris leading the national polls by 2.5% over Trump compared to Harris 2.8% over Trump last week, compared to Harris 3.7% over Trump two weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 3% three weeks ago, compared to Harris 2.5% over Trump four weeks ago, compared to Harris 0.9% over Trump five weeks ago, compared to Harris 2.7% over Trump to six weeks ago, or compared to Harris 1.9% over Trump seven weeks ago.
realclearpolling shows that betting odds favor Harris with a spread of +1.4 over Trump, comparted to +2 over last week's odds, which were tied, compared to Harris favored with a spread of +1.8 over Trump two weeks ago, compared to Harris favor of +2.3 over Trump three weeks ago, compared to Harris +2 over Trump four weeks ago, compared to Harris +1.1 over Trump five weeks ago, compared to Harris +1.8 over Trump six weeks ago, and compared to Harris +1.7 over Trump seven weeks ago.
Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform is expressing odds by the betting public, in favor of Trump 56.9% over Harris 42.6%, a larger margin than last week's odds of Trump 53.4% over Harris 45.9%, compared with Harris favored over Trump by 2% two weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 3% three weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 2% four weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 1% five weeks ago or compared to Trump over Harris by 4% six weeks ago or compared to Harris leading by 1% point over Trump seven weeks ago
Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers were reflected as of Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2024.
Historian Allan Lichtman reveals 2024 presidential pick
Presidential historian Allan Lichtman, 77, is a distinguished professor of history at American University and has predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election over former President Donald Trump. He claims to use a set of 13 "keys" to make his picks, which range from economic indicators to candidates' charisma.
Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election over the last half-century, except for the race in 2000, in which Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.
How accurate have polls or odds been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.
The track record on polling is more challenging as different pollsters asking different audiences can often draw higher margins for error. According to Pew Research, confidence in the public opinion polling has suffered given the errors in the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020. In both of these general elections, many polls underestimated the appeal of Republican Donald Trump.
When is early voting in New York?
In-person early voting for the general election begins Saturday, Oct. 26 and runs through Sunday, Nov. 3. Contact your county's Board of Elections for voting locations.
When is the deadline to register to vote in New York?
The deadline for the general election is Saturday, Oct. 26. All applications - including in-person applications - must be received by this date.
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