Bitcoin’s (BTC) move beyond the $68,000 price level has traders optimistic that this is the run that will lead to retesting its $73,679 all-time high, but not all analysts agree it will be so smooth.
“The prudent move may be to expect a final dip before the market attempts another leg up,” Hyblock Capital CEO Shubh Varma opined in an Oct. 16 report viewed by Cointelegraph.
Bitcoin price in USD. Source: TradingView
Varma cited data from crypto exchange Binance revealing that “less than 40% of retail traders” on the crypto exchange are currently holding long positions — buying Bitcoin with the expectation that its value will rise over time.
“This could indicate a potential reversal, but if retail traders begin piling into long positions en masse, it could be a bearish signal,” Varma stated.
Furthermore, Varma highlighted that Bitcoin’s Open Interest (OI) —the total number of derivative contracts that have not been settled — has reached its “historical resistance level, and a corrective move to flush out long positions may be imminent.”
“A price dip, followed by a decline in OI, could confirm the correction.”
On Oct. 16, Bitcoin’s OI hit $39.36 billion, marking a new year-to-date high and exceeding the previous 2024 peak of $38.8 billion set on April 1, according to Coinglass data.
Bitcoin open interest is currently $39.35 billion. Source: Coinglass
However, not all analysts agree that the surge in Open Interest will necessarily lead to a correction.
Crypto investor Lark Davis believes it may signal a “massive rally ahead.”
“This means an influx of attention and liquidity is starting to flow into the crypto market. Such a spike often signals a significant price movement ahead,” Davis opined in an Oct. 15 X post.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt suggested that Bitcoin’s price could really go either way.
“Bitcoin price is in the window. Will Bitcoin escape through the window or have the window slammed on its head?” Brandt wrote in an Oct. 16 X post.
Some analysts are hoping Bitcoin’s price will drop back to its February levels, believing that would be an optimal buying opportunity.
On Aug. 7, 10x Research head of Research Markus Thielen opined, “To ideally time the next bull market entry, we aim for Bitcoin prices to fall into the low 40,000s.”
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
