As we move through the week, #Bitcoin❗ price action has been particularly interesting. Let’s break down what I’m seeing, especially from Sunday onward, and discuss why this could be a great opportunity for traders looking for a short position.
Consolidation and Rejection from $66,500
Starting on Sunday, Bitcoin was in a consolidation phase around the $66,000 range. The price got rejected from the $66,500 level, a significant resistance point. Following that rejection, Monday saw the price move down, entering a clear downtrend. Since then, Bitcoin has been forming a Bearish Trendline, and it found support around the $60,000 level.
Bearish Trendline Breakout – Fake Out?
On Friday morning, Bitcoin gave a bearish trendline breakout at around $60,800, which I’ve marked with a yellow circle in the chart. At first glance, this might seem like a bullish breakout for many traders, especially those with smaller capital. These traders might see the support at $60,000 and the trendline breakout as signs that Bitcoin is ready to pump.
However, I believe this could be a fake breakout. Why? Because, on the higher timeframe, Bitcoin is still facing rejection from a key level—$66,000, which sits in the higher timeframe supply zone. This rejection makes me cautious about calling this a confirmed breakout.
Fibonacci Levels and Potential Short Play
Looking at the Fibonacci retracement levels of the recent downtrend, there’s a possibility that Bitcoin might rise in the short term, testing the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $63,215.57 or even the 0.618 level at $63,995.16. These levels are key because there’s a Fair Value Gap where the market left unfilled orders. This could lead to a short-term price pump to capture those orders before continuing the overall downtrend.
In my view, this pump would be temporary, as the price is still being heavily rejected at higher levels. The price could rise to the mentioned Fibonacci levels but would likely resume its downward trend afterward. If the market respects these levels, Bitcoin could fall back to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of $59,586.90 or even the 0.618 level at $57,900.14 from the major swing low.
My Short Entry Strategy
Given the recent market behavior, here’s my strategy for a potential short trade on Bitcoin:
Entry Point for Short: $63,201.39
Stop Loss: $64,201.39 (just above the 0.618 Fibonacci level)
Take Profit: $59,586.90
Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:3.63 (a solid ratio that gives a good margin of profit versus risk)
In this scenario, the entry point is carefully placed just before the key Fibonacci resistance levels, and the stop loss is set tightly to limit risk. If the price reaches these levels and respects them, there’s a high probability the downtrend will resume, offering a profitable opportunity for a short trade.
The Weekend Effect and Bitcoin's Potential Decline
Historically, Bitcoin has a tendency to fall during weekends due to lower liquidity and reduced institutional activity. This strengthens the bearish outlook and supports my belief that Bitcoin will likely continue its downward trend after retesting the Fibonacci levels.
Final Thoughts
While this is my personal technical analysis of the current Bitcoin market, I’m not a financial advisor. It’s crucial to conduct your own research before making any trading decisions. The market can be unpredictable, and risk management is key to staying safe in volatile conditions.
Best of luck, trade safe, and keep an eye on those key levels!
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