Speculation on the Peaks of Bitcoin Bull Markets and the Bottoms of Bear Markets: Analysis Based on Historical Cycles

Through a detailed review and in-depth analysis of two cycles of Bitcoin bull and bear markets, I have unearthed a significant pattern: Bitcoin typically takes about 884 days to rise from the lowest point at the bottom to the highest point at the top during each bull market phase, after which it enters an adjustment period and embarks on a lengthy bear market journey.

In detail:
- First Cycle: Started from the bottom in January 2015, reaching the peak of the bull market in December 2017, lasting approximately 884 days.

- Second Cycle: Beginning from the bottom in January 2019, Bitcoin again peaked in the bull market in November 2021, also lasting around 884 days.

Focusing on the current bull market, Bitcoin's price fell to around 15,000 in October 2022, marking the bottom of the bear market. Based on the aforementioned timeframe, it is highly likely that the peak of this bull market will occur around August 2025.

Moreover, I have noticed that the time interval between the bottoms of every two bull markets is approximately 1290 days. If this pattern continues, the next bear market bottom may appear around June 2026.

If you want to delve deeper into the crypto space but can't find a starting point, and wish to quickly understand the information gap, whether it's contracts or spot trading, you can 👉 learn more in my profile #DOGE狂潮 #新任SEC主席

Bitcoin has experienced continuous slashing, and the market has been "cleaned" very cleanly between ups and downs.

Starting from 98667, it seems that the air force is deliberately cultivated, making everyone feel that the price of 100,000 is difficult to break through in the short term, and many people began to short.

Then, with the help of news, it rose by 10,000 points in one day, directly breaking through the psychological barrier of 100,000.

When it broke through the psychological barrier of 100,000 yesterday, it attracted 253 million and 269 million long troops to enter the market in the two intervals of 99900 and 100970 respectively.

But then there was a pin market, which hit the integer price of 90200 all of a sudden, which was really puzzling, and there seemed to be no obvious reason.

#比特币回升至97K #SUI市场新焦点 #历史见证者打卡 #DOGE狂潮

Current market fluctuations are intensifying, reminding everyone not to be overly greedy, especially not to easily leverage.

At this stage, the main goal of the market is to liquidate contract positions. If one thinks of making a bet on contracts because they missed the low position, it is basically equivalent to 'giving away money'.

The trends of each cryptocurrency have now diverged: some fluctuate with Bitcoin, while others have developed completely independent trends. This situation is particularly difficult for newcomers — if you don't chase the highs, it continues to rise; if you do chase the highs, it often leads to a sharp drop.

Therefore, impatience must be avoided. Staying calm is especially important. The cryptocurrency world is not a place where everyone can easily profit; if you can't understand the market, it is unrealistic to expect to capture returns of several times or even dozens of times like others.

The 'rich returns' you see on social media may just be an illusion. Many people choose to silently endure losses and do not disclose them publicly. Those who prominently showcase their results are merely presenting the facade that others want you to see.

To survive in the market, you need to learn to observe over the long term and use time to validate everything, because only time will not deceive you.

#DOGE狂潮 #新任SEC主席 #美国合规概念币走扬

Unveiling: 10x, 75x, 125x Leverage! Overnight Wealth or Losing Everything?
Leverage, this magical tool in trading, allows you to make big money with a small amount, but it can also lead to losing everything. Today, let's talk about 10x, 75x, and even 125x leverage, how they affect your trading, and how to use this double-edged sword well.
What is leverage?
Leverage allows you to control more market positions with less money.
10x leverage means you can trade with 1,000 using 100.
75x leverage means 100 can be used as 7,500.
125x leverage is even more exaggerated, allowing 100 to control a market position of 12,500.
For example, if you invest 100:
With 10x leverage, you can trade a market of 1,000.
With 75x leverage, the position jumps to 7,500.
With 125x leverage, you have a market position of 12,500.
How to calculate winnings?
If the market surges, with a return rate of 1,000%, let's see how much different leverages can earn:
With 10x leverage, you earn 10,000.
With 75x leverage, you earn 75,000.
With 125x leverage, you directly earn 125,000!
But what about the risks?
Higher leverage means higher risks:
With 10x leverage, if the market drops by 10%, your position is gone.
With 75x leverage, a slight 1.33% drop in the market means saying goodbye.
With 125x leverage, a 0.8% market drop wipes out your money.
Moreover, high leverage comes with higher psychological pressure and costs, so you need to be cautious.
How to reduce risks?
Beginners should start with 10x leverage, taking it slow.
Remember to set stop-losses; if the market doesn't feel right, pull out quickly.
Each trade should not risk more than 1-2% of the total investment portfolio.
Always keep an eye on the liquidation line to see how long the market can fluctuate.
Who is suitable for high leverage?
10x leverage can be tried by beginners or those with average risk tolerance.
75x leverage is for experienced traders.
125x leverage is meant for experts who can operate precisely under high risks.
Leverage, when used well, can lead to profit; when used poorly, it results in losses.
Follow for more insights, and feel free to reach out with questions or to learn together. Check out the introduction to cooking industry to join the circle. $SOL $BNB $BTC #加密沙皇 #山寨币市场观察 #历史见证者打卡 #DOGE狂潮

Urgent! XRP holders, the next 24 hours are super important!
XRP friends, pay attention! In the next 24 hours, there might be big news about XRP!
?? Why do I say this?
Recently, there have been many rumors about significant changes in XRP's price and future, such as potential big news, court rulings, or market fluctuations. The case between Ripple and the SEC has already made XRP quite popular in the cryptocurrency circle, and everyone is excited.
?? Let's see the current situation:
1?? Price: XRP's price is currently hovering at a critical position. If it breaks through, it might soar, but we also need to be careful as volatility could increase.
2?? News announcements: We must keep an eye on Ripple's official news, SEC developments, and any major events that might impact XRP.
3?? Trading volume: A sudden increase in trading volume might indicate that big players are getting ready to act.
?? Tips for XRP holders:
Stay updated on the news so you can react quickly to any changes. You can set buy and sell points to control risks during major market fluctuations. If you plan to hold XRP for the long term, now is a good opportunity as XRP is becoming more popular in cross-border payments and banking systems.
If you want to dig deeper into the cryptocurrency space but can't find a clear direction,
Want to understand information asymmetry, whether it's contracts or spot trading, you can check out my content for more insights.
If you like contracts, enjoy market analysis, and studying techniques, click on my profile. I share my years of experience and tips in the cryptocurrency space for free. I'm waiting for you in the circle, always online, welcome to discuss and grow together.

Guidance relies on noble people, walking relies on oneself!

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#DOGE狂潮 $BTC $ETH $BNB

The Roadmap of a Bull Market

In a classic bull market: Bitcoin rises first, dominating the entire bull market, while altcoins remain in a bottom consolidation state for most of the time. Three-quarters of the bull market cycle is a bear market for altcoins, with only a few short months experiencing a significant upward trend.

At the beginning of the bull market, the entire industry is still shrouded in the fear of the bear market, and investors generally adopt a cautious attitude towards the market. Funds tend to flow into Bitcoin, which carries the lowest risk, while avoiding altcoins that have already fallen to despairing levels. Therefore, Bitcoin initiates the upward trend first.

As the bull market progresses, with Bitcoin breaking through historical highs, market sentiment gradually warms up, panic feelings ease, and investors begin to have the motivation to focus on and invest in altcoins. On the other hand, long-term holders of Bitcoin have already reaped substantial rewards, and funds begin to overflow from Bitcoin to those undervalued altcoins with greater growth potential.

Currently, with Bitcoin's price breaking through $100K, many long-term holders are starting to sell, which limits the upward potential of Bitcoin in the later stages. Although Bitcoin is still around $90K to $100K, as long as it continues to consolidate without absorbing significant funds to pump the price, altcoins will inevitably usher in their main upward wave, with growth surpassing that of Bitcoin.

After altcoins complete their main upward wave, during Bitcoin's top consolidation phase, the continuous rise of altcoins will attract a large number of external investors, including those latecomers. These latecomers often find it impossible to buy cheap, high-quality altcoins and can only choose yet-to-launch junk coins. When junk coins also start to skyrocket, the bull market can essentially be declared over.

#比特币今晨触及90.5K #历史见证者打卡 #DOGE狂潮 #新任SEC主席 #美国合规概念币走扬

ETH quickly retraced with BTC early this morning, but completed a perfect pullback~ Continuing bullish!
Short target: upper channel
DOGE is moving slowly, oscillation continues to be bullish
#DOGE狂潮 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥

I am a purely left-side trader; the contract itself is about making big profits from small investments. I started with 10u, and after making 300u, I ended up getting liquidated. At that time, I was doing right-side trading without knowing anything, only chasing highs and cutting losses. However, the fluctuating K-lines would break my psychological state, and later, due to chaotic operations, I faced liquidation.
I realized that technical skills are also very important, so I began to learn. I no longer believe in posts from forums or those who show off their trades with pictures.
From my personal summary, having a strong mindset is just as important as technical analysis. (Even if your stop loss is hit, do not infinitely expand the stop loss range; it will only lead to greater losses.) There are many opportunities in this market; we need to learn to wait.
I want to share my strategy, hoping it will help some friends who feel confused. Of course, one needs to learn and comprehend it by themselves.
Firstly, I use multiple indicators to predict entry points. If I have enough time, I will wait for the entry signal. If I need to sleep or rest and I am extremely confident in my judgment, I will place a limit order (I must set a stop loss of 1.5%-3%). Do not always worry that your stop loss will hit and result in a loss; instead, think that if your judgment is wrong, the stop loss will help reduce your losses.
I will look for direction and key points on a larger scale. First, I will look for key support and resistance levels. Then, I will use Fibonacci to determine key retracement points; I will provide an example below.
If a coin surges, I will first mark the support and resistance levels. I will use Fibonacci to find 0.618 and 0.786, combined with analysis. This is not my entry signal; the key is to use the MACD on a larger scale to determine if there’s a possibility of a change in market momentum.
I will not trade coins that are rising because I am a left-side trader. Every day, I look for pullbacks and coins that have been consolidating for many days. (With coins in consolidation, you don’t know when they will surge, but you can achieve 20%-40% contracts with 75x leverage from the oscillations.)
Once you have technical analysis for comparison, the most important thing is execution. Do not enter positions at support levels that are not crucial; when you reach your target position, you must set a stop loss. Never change any targets manually without a stop loss! The stop loss can be calculated using the ATR average value. I advise everyone that the market is very harsh; do not blindly follow others. Improving oneself is the long-term strategy. I hope this helps everyone. If you like contracts, enjoy studying charts and technical analysis, click on my avatar; I have years of experience and skills in the crypto space and will share them freely. I'm here in the community, online anytime, welcome to discuss and progress together.

The Blood and Tears Warning from a Veteran in the Crypto Space: Even in a Bull Market, There are Big Pits, Don't Repeat My Mistakes!
I jumped headfirst into the crypto space in 2018, and today I want to share all the pitfalls and falls I've experienced over the years, hoping to remind everyone not to follow in my footsteps.
Contracts - The Deadly Trap in Crypto
A bull market is not just a straight surge; the K-line chart rises and falls, following wave theory, and fluctuations are the norm. While we can analyze the major trends and build cycle models, no one can accurately predict the ups and downs within 15 minutes. Many people, however, take chances and dive into contract trading.
Contracts carry a gambler's nature, predicting price movements is like flipping a coin, and while it seems like a 50/50 chance, the reality is that nine out of ten times you lose. When you win, greed takes over, wanting to capitalize on the momentum and expand your victories; when you lose, you become unwilling to accept it, focusing entirely on recovering your losses. Casinos understand human weaknesses well; they are not afraid of you winning temporarily but fear you leaving without playing. The same applies to the contract market. After a night's sleep, market conditions can change abruptly, a large bearish candle can wipe out your account in an instant.
Mental Collapse - The Fatal Injury of Retail Investors
Chasing highs and cutting losses has become an epidemic in the crypto space. Watching prices soar, you feel a rush of adrenaline and rush in; when prices fall, you panic and immediately cut your losses. Some even take out loans to invest in crypto, completely engulfed by anxiety. Burdened with high-interest loans, all you can think about is breaking even, leading to a complete imbalance in your mindset. All the technical analysis and investment strategies learned before are thrown out the window, becoming slaves to emotions, repeatedly harvested by the market.
A Guide to Avoid Pitfalls for Newcomers
1. Information Screening: The crypto space is full of mixed information; news should be read, but you need to develop a keen eye to filter reliable sources, avoiding misleading rumors and false hype.
2. Slow Work Produces Fine Products: K-line trends are an important reference, but don’t rush in just because you see an upward trend. Calm down, analyze more, and understand the methods before taking action; haste makes waste.
3. Time Compounding: Investment is not a sprint; it’s a marathon. Give yourself time to grow, allowing knowledge and experience to ferment slowly, abandon the fantasy of becoming rich overnight, and proceed steadily, letting time be your wealth partner.
Follow for updates; if you have questions that need consulting or want to exchange and learn together. See the cooking industry introduction to avoid unnecessary troubles.

So you understand, the market is manipulated with a probability of over 80%. Besides controlling your position, you must also respond proactively. You must resolutely avoid entering the market before confirming the actions of the operators; once you enter, the exchange becomes the butcher, and you become the fish and meat.

Trading is a test of patience, composure, and timing. Let's encourage each other.

Many times, you lose many profitable opportunities due to your doubts. You are afraid to boldly try, engage, and understand. How can you know the pros and cons without taking the first step? Only by taking that step will you know how to proceed next.

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Musk launches the "DOGE Plan" with a bang, aiming to reshape the U.S. economy!

Currently, the U.S. economy is mired in difficulties, with a high trade deficit and cumbersome bureaucracy, stifling private sector vitality. Tesla's leader Elon Musk, however, brings a breakthrough blade—the "DOGE Plan" (Department of Government Efficiency) making a strong debut, calling on Capitol Hill to reallocate resources from inefficient government departments to high-capacity private sectors!

Core Highlights

Restructuring Federal Spending Framework

Precise "slimming down," cutting off the "excess fat" of inefficient expenditures, firmly protecting the core of social security and healthcare, ensuring people's livelihood.

Breaking Regulatory Shackles

Investing hundreds of billions in deregulation plans, shattering the "glass wall" hindering private enterprise development, unleashing growth potential.

Disrupting Old Subsidy Models

Musk proposes to eliminate electric vehicle tax credits, directly confronting competitors like Rivian, competing on strength, and defending fairness.

Gathering Elite Think Tanks

10 - 12 experts gathered at DOGE, collaborating with federal departments, innovating proposals "at full speed."

Musk's Political Energy

As a Trump advisor and a key player at America PAC, Musk has invested over $152 million, using the X platform to amplify conservative voices; despite controversies over SpaceX contracts, his determination to innovate the economic landscape remains unshaken.

Why is "DOGE" the key to breaking the deadlock?

It belongs to the President's Executive Office, serving as a flexible consulting body, transcending bureaucratic constraints, directly addressing the root issues—fast, accurate, and effective!

Bold moves, the future is here

From reducing federal loans to streamlining regulations, DOGE steadily advances reform, with Musk and Vivek promising to present a comprehensive reform plan by July 4, 2026, reshaping the peak of U.S. economic efficiency.

Want to keep up with the reshaping trend? Follow Mr. Lin! Moreover, Marvin will dive deep into strategies interpreting Musk's concepts, don't miss the opportunity to stand at the forefront of historical change!

$BNB may rise for the following reasons:
1. The Trump administration may open up IPO listings for cryptocurrency companies, including Binance US.
2. Multiple sources indicate that Binance is not being acquired, but rather looking to bring in strategic investors, possibly at a government level, with Abu Dhabi or Dubai being the most likely candidates at present.
3. The BNB chain has been very active recently, such as chain development upgrades, and the official involvement in liquidity pools, which is quite aggressive.
If you enjoy contracts, like to study charts, and research technology, click on my avatar. I have years of experience and tips in the crypto space, and I'm here to share them for free. I'm waiting for you in the community, online anytime. Welcome to discuss and improve together $SOL $ETH #山寨币市场观察 #历史见证者打卡 #DOGE狂潮 #新任SEC主席

$PNUT The next SHIB is the Musk-themed puppy, the strongest dog on the Ethereum chain #山寨币市场观察 #DOGE狂潮 ##历史见证者打卡 #比特币回升至97K

December 6th, Friday Night Analysis of Bitcoin

Recently, Bitcoin broke through 100,000 and quickly fell back to around 90,000. Bitcoin is currently quoted at around 97,900.

My personal prediction is that opportunities this week lie in tonight, but it may continue to fluctuate downward during the day. 99,000 is a key point for Bitcoin; if it breaks through, it is expected to continue to explore 100,000. Currently, the market is highly volatile, and short-term momentum is insufficient. Evening operations are mainly focused on high volatility.

Bitcoin: Around 99,000-98,500, with the target first looking at around 96,500.

If the breakout trend continues, it can continue to look down to 111,454,233,470,970,207,915,979,024,507,960,402,554,923,75.

Musk posted: Doge is unstoppable.
​Subsequently, the price of Dogecoin skyrocketed in a short period, with an increase of over 10% at one point. Musk's influence is evident; every statement he makes on social media can trigger significant market fluctuations.
​According to statistics, the market capitalization of Dogecoin is also steadily rising, successfully breaking into the top ten cryptocurrencies in the world.
​Although Musk's optimism about Dogecoin has excited many people. ​​​​

Cryptocurrency essentials, click on the homepage to follow me for potential hundred-fold gains in the bull market, as well as daily spot strategies!

Current Price Dantian (68) - Short-term, real-time published points, direction, space, not hindsight, please refer to yourself.

Current price of Bitcoin 101000, target above 102000-102600, defense 100200.
Current price of Ether 3876, target above 3950-4000, defense 3840.

Personal suggestion, for reference only! Be sure to have a defense! #BTC新高10W #历史见证者打卡 #DOGE狂潮 #新任SEC主席 #美国合规概念币走扬 $BTC $ETH

In terms of market capitalization, Dogecoin (DOGE) as the largest Dogecoin may exhibit a rise similar to XRP. It is said that since November, DOGE has experienced a remarkable increase. There are similarities between the DOGE chart and the XRP chart. DOGE is reportedly ready to embrace a rising trend like XRP. The similarity between Dogecoin (DOGE) and XRP Since November 12, DOGE has not taken stable action, consolidating between $0.48 and $0.34 for several weeks. Despite the long-standing uncertainty surrounding DOGE, analysts still have hopes for continued rise. The chart shows three descending wedge patterns. According to analysis, the first wedge occurred between 2014 and 2017 and ended with a significant increase. The second wedge occurred between 2018 and 2021, opening the door for an important bull market. When the second wedge was broken, DOGE reached its all-time high of $0.74. Dogecoin is expected to emerge from the third and latest wedge pattern, which has lasted from mid-2021 to 2024, and set new records, with a likelihood of the Dogecoin price increasing by $1 at the end of the third wedge pattern. Recently, in the Meme project, Elon Musk's beloved DOGE and SHIB have gained traction, while another of Musk's favorites, Marvin, is also about to rise. Musk has created a coin specifically for his beloved pets, and interested friends can leave comments in the discussion area.

This Wednesday we harvested a lot of honey, the result of working hard with new and old students #BTC能站稳10W吗？ #DOGE狂潮