The market has been falling for the entire current month, without any news. But just yesterday, scarecrows began to appear, saying miners are selling their reserves $BTC , and those affected by the collapse of the MtGox exchange in 2014 began to receive payments.
That is, negative news began to pour in when most of the market had already collapsed, especially alts. Isn’t this close to the culmination of sales on the market 🤷♂️
During yesterday’s fall in Bitcoin, alts no longer showed negative dynamics, and even some of the alts began to grow against this background, continuing to grow to this day.
A fairly positive sign indicating that most of the viola sellers are already out of the market.
☠️ The index of fear and greed fell to 30 - fear. Although just a week ago this index indicated almost extreme greed.
In this bull market cycle, this index entered the fear zone only 3 times and now it is the 4th.
Of course, after such marks, a bottom formed and Bitcoin began to update local highs.
Look at the picture above, which shows the dynamics of this index in this growth cycle (blue bars) and the dynamics of the Bitcoin price (yellow line). The result is obvious, the bottom was always formed precisely on fear.
By the way, the index of fear and greed on the fund is still in the fear zone.
💰 Charts of#ETFfunds closed the unclosed gap.
The picture shows charts of the most highly capitalized BTC ETFs.
As you can see from their history, they always close gaps.
Moreover, during yesterday’s fall, they formed a new gap on top, which will now need to be closed in the future.
A record $1.2 billion worth of options will expire on June 28. Minimum strike (target price) $70,000.
The price only needs to close at least $1 lower for these options to not make a profit. Now the price is much lower ⌛️
🕯 Technical analysis
As they said earlier, Bitcoin broke through the upward trend of this bullish trend (green line). Also, yesterday the long-term moving average MA20w was broken - negative signals.
However, in just one day, Bitcoin has already tested the long-term moving average MA200d and the key support level of $59,500. This was followed by a price rollback and liquidations amounting to $307 million. There is still little enough to complete the correction.
The indicator flew into the extreme oversold zone and formed a bullish divergence.
To make the picture beautiful, what is missing is a short-term fall under the moving MA200d, where even the most experienced traders will lose faith in further growth.
Under this moving average, by all logic, there should be long stops, taking into account the previous price low on May 1, which ideally would need to be updated.
And right around $55,500 is the lower boundary of the current sideways channel - a massive bullish flag that we have been writing about for many months in a row.
✔️ Our current base scenario is a fall under the long-term moving average MA200d, where record liquidations will be formed and the price will draw a long shadow with immediate redemption.
This shadow, in theory, can reach $52,000, but will be instantly redeemed.
Therefore, we personally placed a grid of limit orders for the purchase of Bitcoin up to $52,000 using the remaining funds.
And next month, within 1-2 weeks, we expect the beginning of a new round of growth with updated price highs.
There is not long to wait, your task is not to sell everything on the market. Good luck!
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