#Binance #btc #USDT

The Impact of Macroeconomic Data on Bitcoin and Possible Scenarios

1. Non-Farm Employment Data 7 June

Employment Increase Above Expectations (20%)

- BTC decline in the short term (-2% to -5%)

- Increasing employment, strengthening of the economy and increasing inflation risk may strengthen expectations for interest rate increases.

Employment Increase Consistent with Expectations (50%)

- Neutral or slightly positive trend in BTC price (0% to 2%)

- Markets are likely to have already priced in this outcome, so a major move is not expected.

Employment Increase Below Expectations (30%)

- BTC rise (3% to 7%)

- Weak employment data indicates an economic slowdown and may increase interest rate cut expectations.

2. Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation Data (12 June 2024)

CPI 3.3% or Lower (40%)

- BTC rises strongly (5% to 10%)

- Low inflation increases interest rate cut expectations and creates a positive environment for BTC.

CPI Between 3.3% and 3.5% (40%)

- A limited movement in BTC (0% to 3%)

- A result in line with market expectations does not create a large fluctuation.

CPI Above 3.5% (20%)

- BTC falling (-3% to -6%)

- High inflation strengthens interest rate hike expectations and may trigger an escape from risky assets.

3rd Interest Decision (June 12, 2024)

Interest Deduction (25%)

- BTC rises strongly (5% to 10%)

- Interest rate cuts mean that liquidity increases and risky assets such as BTC become attractive.

Interest Rates Remain Stable (60%)

- A limited movement in BTC (0% to 3%)

- Markets usually price this outcome in advance, so a large fluctuation is not expected.

Interest Rate Increase (15%)

- BTC falling (-4% to -8%)

- An increase in interest rates means a decrease in liquidity and an escape from risky assets.