Bitcoin hit resistance at the weekly open (68524) for the second time.

This Friday (today) is the monthly close, a very important price level that will determine future price action.

On a weekly/monthly level, Bitcoin is still in a consolidation range in an uptrend.

Currently fluctuating above the daily 20-day moving average, but normally, prices rarely leave this moving average without volume.

Therefore, I think there is a high probability that Bitcoin will break below this moving average.

Keep this in mind, I could be wrong, but this scenario is very likely to happen.

If there is no heavy volume during a potential decline, we will see Bitcoin looking for liquidity around 64,000.

The pivot 20-day moving average is growing towards around 61,500, which is also another medium-term price attraction.

The invalidation of all bearish scenarios is a 4-hour close above 68.9k - this would lead to a quick retest of ~71,000 and a possible breakout to a new all-time high.

It is important to note that the main bullish side of recent price action is Ethereum. It has fallen below the middle of the range and may fall a little further to the bottom of the range (at least to 3650). This also supports the view that Bitcoin will pull back further.

Key support and resistance levels:

Above: 68530 / 69277 / 71300 / 71944

Below: 66810 / 65860 / 64262 / 63090#BTC走势分析 $BTC $ETH