Bitcoin is in danger, analysis of the impact of Mentougou's selling: offsetting halving or Bitcoin spot ETF. Ethereum may have more potential in the future.
Mentougou's current actions:
Mt.Gox wallet addresses have transferred more than 107,000 bitcoins worth about $7 billion to unknown addresses, which may be part of a plan to repay creditors before October 31, 2024.
Mentougou's asset liquidation results: 142,000 bitcoins and 142,000 bitcoin cash, worth $100 at $70,000 each.
So how much selling pressure will Mentougou form in the future, and how much liquidity will it add to the market?
The impact of Bitcoin halving for one year is completely offset:
Before Bitcoin halving, the output of Bitcoin was 900. After the current halving, the output of Bitcoin per day is 450, 450 * 365 = 164,200 Bitcoins, which means that the reduction in Bitcoin supply in one year is only a little more than the Bitcoin that Mentougou will liquidate.
The key is that 850,000 bitcoins are still in the hands of hackers in Mentougou, which is very scary. I hope the hackers will never be caught and the money has been locked.
The positives of Bitcoin spot ETF need to be neutralized:
After the listing of Bitcoin spot ETF, the current market value is about 60 billion. Considering that Grayscale had 640,000 bitcoins before, it is worth 44.8 billion US dollars at 70,000 US dollars per bitcoin, which means that the listing of Bitcoin spot ETF has inflows of between 10 billion and 15 billion US dollars. Because the average entry price of Bitcoin spot ETF cannot be 70,000 US dollars, after the listing of Bitcoin spot ETF, it has risen from 40,000 US dollars to 70,000 US dollars, so after the listing of Bitcoin spot ETF, the funds entering the market are estimated to be around 10 billion US dollars.
The selling of Bitcoin in Mentougou can completely dilute the benefits brought by Bitcoin spot ETF.
Ethereum may have more potential in the future:
Ethereum spot ETF has been passed, and the market value is relatively small. Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum has ecological support, 27% of the locks on POS verification nodes, plus the locks of Defi, Ethereum spot ETF will lead to tight ETH supply.
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