#降息 #5月市场关键事件

Powell's speech yesterday was neither dovish nor hawkish, and he seemed to be preparing for a big one, but it doesn't matter anymore. What we need to pay attention to is whether to cut interest rates this year, which is the key to whether the bull market can continue to rise!

Summarize the key points of yesterday's speech:

1: Interest rate outlook: Reiterate that interest rates may remain high for a longer period of time, do not think that inaction may be a rate hike, and are more likely to maintain the policy interest rate level at the current level.

2: Inflation outlook: Confidence in the decline in inflation is lower than before, and the lack of further progress in inflation in the United States in the first quarter is noteworthy: the inflation rate is expected to fall month-on-month.

3: Economic outlook: The US economy is performing very well, with a very strong labor market, and GDP is expected to continue to grow at a rate of 2% or higher, which benefits from the addition of new labor.

4: Market reaction: Since Powell's speech, gold has basically remained sideways, rising to a maximum of $2,356.72. The three major U.S. stock indices generally showed a V-shaped trend.

5: Latest expectations: The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a cumulative 40BP this year, with the probability of rate cuts in June and September at around 50%, which is basically consistent with the situation before Powell's speech.