Highlights of this issue:
1. Bitcoin bull run completes 37.1%$BTC
2. Why did ENA rise against the trend? #ENA瞬间燃爆全网成为
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01
X Viewpoint
1. Rocky (@Rocky_Bitcoin): Trump's changing attitude towards encryption
Today, Trump’s remarks in support of cryptocurrency went viral, causing significant increases in both his NFT and MEME coins!
According to the latest US voter sample survey, most cryptocurrency voters said that cryptocurrency has had a positive impact on their financial situation. Almost half of them have made a profit in cryptocurrency! As shown below:
It seems that whoever supports cryptocurrency in this US election will be a huge boost, and it is also expected to abolish the SEC chairman and accelerate the passage of the ETH ETF.
2. Phyrex (@Phyrex_NI): BTC circulation drops to year low
It can be seen that the amount of#BTCtransferred in and out of exchanges in the last three working days is basically the lowest value in the past six months, and even lower than some of the weekend data in the first quarter. This means that the circulation of BTC has dropped to the level of a bear market. Of course, it is only a decrease in circulation, which does not mean a decrease in price. On the contrary, the purchasing power is slightly higher than the selling volume.
3.0xWizard (@0xCryptoWizard): How to view “Chinese projects”
I will try to objectively summarize the possible problems of the "Chinese Project":
flow
The price of a currency is closely related to traffic. I think the most difficult hurdle for Chinese projects is to reach the broader English market. The English market not only represents the common denominator of investment participants from Europe and the United States, but also from Japan, South Korea, Turkey, Southeast Asia and other countries. In addition, Chinese participants are generally "smart". If only this group of people participate, the pvp will be very tragic.
Legitimacy
Crypto is inherently political, whether it is V God in the ETH ecosystem or the OG project in the BTC ecosystem, they all naturally carry the so-called "orthodoxy". Although I don't like it, Chinese projects will encounter obstacles in this regard, even if the product project is very good.
Technology/Product/Innovation
Chinese projects are usually strong in engineering, such as mining farms/exchanges, but weak in innovation. In fact, in the BTC ecosystem, Chinese projects are very innovative, whether it is the isomorphic binding of RGB+ or Merlin's series of model innovations. However, how these innovations can be recognized in terms of "orthodoxy" and gain consensus on traffic is a big hurdle that needs to be overcome with difficulty.
"pattern"
All project owners have to ship goods, regardless of whether they are Chinese or European and American. The difference is that they should not be so small that everyone loses money. For example, some projects have to make hundreds of thousands of U or a few million U. All participants, except the project owners themselves, lose money. Such projects will be difficult to do well in the future. No one dares to support them. Of course, on this issue, I also tend to think that regardless of whether they are Chinese or European and American, it depends on the project owners and each case is discussed separately.
Summarize
The above is an objective analysis of the main problems of "Chinese projects". In my opinion, the two most common problems are "traffic" and "legitimacy". If the Chinese project team wants to do well, they should pay attention to the global market from the very beginning to obtain broader "traffic" and to cooperate with the mainstream within the team to obtain "legitimacy". I don't think "innovation" is a problem, and "pattern" is a matter of discussion.
02
On-chain data
@KaikoData: BlackRock’s new BUIDL token is powered by Ondo Finance
Last week, BlackRock’s BUIDL fund surpassed Franklin Templeton’s BENJI to become the largest U.S. Treasury tokenized fund. The newly issued BUIDL tokens are driven by Ondo Finance, which plans to transfer $95 million to Blackrock’s fund.
Embers: Victims of Phishing for 1155 WBTC Have Received Partial Funds Back
The victim who was phished for 1155 WBTC has replied to the phishing gang’s contact information 8 hours ago through an on-chain message. The phishing gang has returned 3,764 ETH ($11.42M) to the victim’s address, and is still returning the money. The phishing gang exchanged the 1155 WBTC they caught for 22,960 ETH, and then distributed it to hundreds of wallets. After the return is completed, we should know what percentage of the bounty the victim provided to the phishing gang (according to the on-chain call a few days ago, a 10% bounty was provided).
03
Sector Interpretation
According to Coinmarketcap data, the top five currencies in terms of 24-hour popularity are: METAL, TON, AKT, RNDR, and FRIEND. According to Coingecko data, in the crypto market, the top five sectors with the highest growth are: BNB Ecosystem, Icetea Labs, Circle Capital, CMC Community Vote Winners, and PolkaFoundry Red Kite.
Hot Spot Focus——What are the mainstream projects in LayerZero ecosystem?
As LayerZero is about to issue a token, its ecological projects have also begun to gain some attention. From the perspective of TVL, Stargate developed by LayerZero Labs and the cross-chain lending protocol Radiant Capital; from the perspective of the investment team behind it, the decentralized stablecoin protocol Angle Protocol (mainly the Euro stablecoin) led by a16z is worth paying attention to.
Stargate: Stargate Finance is a multi-chain cross-chain bridge protocol based on LayerZero. It was created by LayerZero Labs in March 2022. It is the core of Omnichain DeFi and the first DApp based on the LayerZero protocol. It is a protocol that can realize asset transfers between multiple blockchains.
Angle Protocol is a decentralized stablecoin protocol based on LayerZero. It has currently launched the euro stablecoin agEUR and the euro savings solution stEUR. The latter is mainly supported by the real world assets (RWA) owned by the protocol in the agEUR reserve. The initial yield is set at 4% and is paid in euros. Previously, Angle Labs completed a $5 million seed round of financing led by a16z.
Radiant Capital (RNDT for short) is a full-chain liquidity lending platform built through LayerZero cross-chain technology, which means that users can deposit and borrow across chains.
Hashflow is a cross-chain DEX that focuses on zero slippage and MEV protection. It uses LayerZero to achieve cross-chain messaging and currently supports Ethereum mainnet, BNB Chain, Avalanche, Polygon, Arbitrum and other networks.
Star Protocol is a full-chain domain name protocol built on LayerZero, which supports cross-chain domain name functions of 25 blockchain networks.
Mugen Finance is a yield management protocol based on LayerZero that aims to create a more transparent and diversified set of yield strategies.
04
Macro Analysis
Beincrypto: Bitcoin bull run is 37.1% complete
Despite the typical roller-coaster ride that the cryptocurrency market has been through, Bitcoin appears to be poised for significant growth amidst the post-halving correction wave.
1. Bitcoin’s market value will triple
The optimism surrounding Bitcoin’s potential isn’t just empty talk; it’s rooted in solid analysis. One of the main proponents of this bullish outlook is Ki Young Ju, CEO of Cryptoquant.
Ju said the core fundamentals of the Bitcoin network are strong enough to support tripling its current market cap. This could push Bitcoin’s price to a staggering $265,000, a figure that highlights the huge growth potential. His confidence is reinforced by historical data, which shows that past bullish phases with similar fundamentals have led to significant price increases.
Cryptocurrency trader Rekt Capital also joined the bullish chorus, noting that according to the standard halving cycle, this bull run is only 37.1% complete. This shows that Bitcoin's price rise is far from reaching its peak. In addition, Rekt Capital recently said that Bitcoin may have exited the danger zone.
2. It will take another week to confirm the reversal of capital inflows
Willy Woo, another respected analyst, has noticed subtle but significant inflows into the Bitcoin network. These inflows are crucial because they reflect growing investor confidence, strengthening the market’s foundations.
“If I look closely, early signs are that inflows into the Bitcoin network are increasing again. It may take another week before we properly confirm this trend reversal,” Woo said.
Further insight into the market dynamics comes from Santiment, which tracks the massive accumulation of Bitcoin by large holders, or whales. Recently, whales have snapped up around $941 million worth of Bitcoin. Amid widespread market fears, this aggressive accumulation is often a precursor to a positive market reversal and continued bullish trend.
Axel Adler Jr, a well-known on-chain and macro research analyst, emphasized the role of market sentiment in shaping future price movements. He mentioned the need to accumulate short positions, which could eventually drive prices higher.
Adler also noted ongoing bearish pressure but sees it as a setup for a bullish rebound.
3. Consolidation to clean out disloyal investors
On-Chain College offers another interesting perspective, suggesting that the current state of the market is a consolidation based on the MVRV Z-Score. This period of “breathing time” is critical because it weeds out less committed investors and paves the way for stronger growth.
Historically, these consolidation phases have often preceded major bull runs in Bitcoin’s market cycles.
05
Research Reports
Bankless: Why did ENA rise against the trend?
While many altcoins are on a downward trend, ENA has been able to rise against the trend. Crypto researcher Jack Inabinet discussed the reasons for its rise and expressed his views on whether the rise is sustainable and the source of the project's income.
While many altcoins have been trending lower in recent trading, Ethena’s ENA has managed to buck the trend, rising nearly 10% at the start of this week. What’s causing ENA’s outperformance? Is its uptrend sustainable?
The ENA/BTC trading pair established its local bottom last week, and Ethena’s head of growth tweeted that there will be important information released in the coming days.
After the community members announced the news first, the ENA/BTC trading pair saw a good increase on Monday, and then the official Twitter account of Ethena Labs announced on Tuesday that USDe will be integrated into the Bybit exchange, which was the fourth largest exchange in terms of futures trading volume in April. In the afternoon of the same day, ENA soared to $1, a new high since May.
The partnership will support spot USDe trading pairs and allow Bybit users to use USDe as perpetual trading collateral, enabling them to achieve greater capital efficiency by offsetting a large portion of funding payments. In addition, users will be able to increase their yields by providing USDe to Bybit earn products.
If Bybit receives positive feedback after supporting USDe trading pairs, other exchanges may also support USDe trading pairs soon, and may eventually compete with stablecoins such as USDT and USDC.
For Ethena to succeed, demand for long leverage must remain high to keep the funding rate high, as this is where the majority of the project's revenue comes from. Additionally, a reduction in the funding rate reduces the returns for holders, and Ethena suffers when the rate turns negative.
While the bull-run-driven high fees support USDe adoption in early 2024, the token’s supply has been declining since April 13, when the cryptocurrency market fell into a downtrend.
The continued decline in fees suggests that the market frenzy has come to a temporary halt, and while USDe exchange integrations could help boost demand for the token, they will have a hard time saving the product if returns decline further.
PANews: Over 50 billion US dollars swept up US Bitcoin spot ETF, asset management companies are the main force
Recently, with the release of the US 13F (institutional holdings report), the positions of institutions participating in the "sweeping" of Bitcoin spot ETFs have also been exposed. So, how is the market development of Bitcoin spot ETFs? Which ETF products have the investment giants allocated, and what investment signals have they released?
1. More than 50 billion US dollars of funds poured in, and the United States accounted for nearly 90% of the global share
Looking at the market size of global Bitcoin spot ETFs, the United States is undoubtedly the main force. According to HODL15Capital data monitoring, as of May 7, the US Bitcoin spot ETF has held 827,321,000 BTC in 4 months since its launch, with a value of approximately US$52.1 billion, accounting for 89.5% of the global market.
However, judging from the growth rate of funds, the capital inflows into the US Bitcoin spot ETF mainly came from the two months after its listing, and reached a peak of 836,000 BTC in mid-March this year, and then began to show a slight downward trend month by month.
Among the 11 US Bitcoin spot ETFs, the top three are Grayscale, BlackRock and Fidelity, which have shown strong "money-attracting power", holding a total of 719,000 BTC (worth $26.91 billion), accounting for 86.9% of the total, which is about 3.3 times that of "Bitcoin giant" MicroStrategy. In contrast, Franklin Templeton, WisdomTree and Hashdex performed relatively poorly, accounting for only 8.8%.
In terms of asset size, only Grayscale and BlackRock’s two Bitcoin spot ETFs are worth more than 10 billion US dollars. Among them, Grayscale has been in a state of continuous capital outflow since GBTC was converted into a spot ETF, and only recently saw the first inflow of funds. The number of BTC currently held is only 47% of that in January this year; BlackRock has basically been growing in the past few months, but the expansion rate has slowed down or even slightly decreased since mid-April.
In addition, as the first market in Asia to issue spot Bitcoin ETFs, as of May 7, the three Hong Kong Bitcoin spot ETFs have held a total of 4,256 BTC and an asset management scale of US$270 million, but this is only nearly 0.7% of the first day of listing of the US Bitcoin spot ETF, and there has been no obvious growth trend within a week of going online. It is worth mentioning that there have been recent market reports that the Hong Kong Bitcoin spot ETF may be included in the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect program, but the Hong Kong ETF issuer denied it, saying that it is pure rumor, just like the previous rumors that southbound funds can buy Hong Kong Bitcoin ETFs.
2. Asset management is the main force in subscription, and these three products have become the mainstream choice
The 13F report is considered an important channel to obtain the investment direction of Wall Street. According to the US SEC regulations, equity asset institutions that manage stock assets exceeding 100 million US dollars must disclose the current US equity held within 45 days after the end of each quarter (three months) and provide the whereabouts of the relevant funds. According to the information disclosed in the existing market, many institutions have listed Bitcoin spot ETFs as investment targets. For example, Fintel data shows that IBIT has 207 holding institutions and shareholders, and GBTC has 402 institutional owners and shareholders.
PANews counted some institutions that purchased Bitcoin spot ETFs and found that asset management institutions invested relatively more funds and had a richer selection of product types, but they accounted for a smaller proportion of their overall investment portfolios, while banks were more cautious in product selection and had limited investment funds. Among the many Bitcoin spot ETFs, GBTC, IBIT and FBTC are almost the mainstream trading products in the market. In addition, it is interesting that 3 Hong Kong institutions have invested in US Bitcoin spot ETFs. Of course, this may be related to factors such as differences in fees and the background of asset custodians.