#新币挖矿 #REZ #Renzo
This is the fourth issue of the club's investment research. The previous issues have received 400,000 views. This issue is also an old habit. I will wait until the KOLs have finished writing before I write. This article mainly discusses:
1. In-depth analysis of the value of the#renzoprotocol in the heavy-collateralization sector.
2. Thoughts on $REZ valuation trading based on various pre-market events.
After Binance launched the launchpool, various rumors about Renzo and the community emerged, which had a certain impact on many traders' trading expectations for $rez. The principle of this article is to reject mass production and focus on discussing what everyone is concerned about.
1. In-depth analysis of the value of the#renzoprotocol in the heavy staking sector
Renzo is EigenLayer's Liquidity Re-mortgage Token (LRT) and Strategy Manager. It is the interface of the EigenLayer ecosystem, which protects the Active Verification Service (AVS) and provides higher returns than ETH staking. I have explained EigenLayer and AVS very clearly in the research report of $ALT $ETHFI, so I will not repeat it here.
Based on the concept of returning all heavy-staking ecosystems to Ethereum, the development direction of the Renzo protocol mainly involves three things:
1. Aggregate and distribute liquidity. The entire liquidity in the pledge ecosystem is the king of liquidity and TVL. Whoever has the strongest liquidity has the highest degree of integration. Renzo is currently integrated with various DEFI protocols and has enabled native staking in many L2 protocols, which is something that many projects do not have.
2. Liquidity application efficiency and cost optimization. Eigenlayer runs on the Ethereum mainnet, and each transaction will incur Gas costs. As a member of the EigenLayer ecosystem, Renzo abstracts the complex process of end-user re-staking, enabling it to reduce costs and increase the rewards generated by the distribution of AVS while also taking into account efficiency issues.
3. Risk and portfolio management. Staking is to obtain income from the staking agreement. Many of these are constraints between risk and return. How to balance these points is also what the Renzo protocol is doing.
It is worth mentioning that Renzo has also integrated with the $PENDLE protocol, that is, Pendle's SY token can represent ezETH 1:1 (for every LST or ETH deposited in Renzo, it will mint an equal amount of ezETH).
SY=Principal Token (PT)+Yield Token (YT).
SY and PT tokens can be paired in Renzo’s AMM pool to generate LP tokens. If you are familiar with pendle, you can get the following benefits through the combination:
1. Heavy pledge income.
2. EigenLayer points and 3x ezPoints (airdrop)
3. PENDLE reward.
It's like killing two birds with one stone.
The investment institutions of RENZO are easy to check, and I am too lazy to talk too much. Maven11, Binance Labs, OKX Ventures, IOSG, I am concerned about:
The Polyhedra Bitcoin interoperability protocol has a total of over $5.3 billion in cryptoeconomic security, supported by etherfi, Renzo and Swell's LRT. In addition, its double staking mechanism also allows future ZK token stakers on its AVS to also receive benefits from its Bitcoin interoperability protocol.
After Binance launched the new Renzo, it later officially announced the airdrop of BTC ecosystem such as Bouncebit, and actively deployed Babylon. These represent the layout direction of Binance. Those who are interested in making money should be able to ambush Binance’s wealth code from them.
2. Thoughts on $REZ valuation trading based on various pre-market events.
When writing research reports, regardless of whether the project party gives me money or not, the investment research club still hopes to be as objective as possible and look at the problem from a dialectical perspective, rather than simply writing good things about the project.
For a KOL, writing some good words is meaningless. For a trader who does investment research, he has to invest and research at the same time. So, you can’t just look at his good narrative, but also see his objective work:
1. The controversy over token economics and the project team’s decision to make changes. This picture may seem insignificant, but if you calculate carefully, you will know that the project team has always said that they are very grateful to the community builders and ecosystem producers, but when it comes to distributing money, 70% of the team members have 2.5% allocated to Binance Launchpool and 10% for airdrops (which can only be claimed after the market opens).
Fortunately, he listened to the advice and increased the airdrop share, and changed the claim date from after-hours to 1 hour before Binance opens.
2. $ezETH depegged dramatically.
Because of the above problems, when Renzo announced the token economics and airdrop claiming rules, ezETH experienced a large amount of selling pressure, and the short-term de-pegging fell to $688. During this period, a whale used 2,400 ETH to purchase 2,499 ezETH, making a net profit of 99 ETH. Although it also returned to the peg, this news is painful to read everywhere. The liquidity of a project that does liquidity staking was destroyed by someone, allowing arbitrageurs to make a lot of money.
Based on the pre-market facts, we began to conduct an online valuation of $REZ:
1. Financing cost accounting.
Renzo completed two rounds of financing. The seed round valuation was 25 million yuan (not very meaningful for reference) and it raised 3.2 million US dollars. If the cost is calculated based on the seed round, the cost of institutional financing is around 0.000x, which is obviously unrealistic.
The amount of funds raised by Binance Labs was not disclosed later, but based on Binance Labs' cost habits in the heavy-collateral sector (4 million yuan) and 20% of the chips raised, the cost of institutional financing should be around 0.02-0.03, and it is only calculated in U-based terms.
2. Calculation of analogy valuation.
Most of the KOLs said that I expect the valuation of the listing to be between 0.3-0.4, and their pricing is based on the pricing of over-the-counter transactions.
In addition to the airdrop cost calculation I mentioned earlier, the pricing method of over-the-counter transactions also uses the analogy valuation method for calculation. Renzo's analogy valuation has many similar items, which is one of the few that can be accurately calculated using the analogy valuation method.
Its analog valuation can refer to $ethfi for the following reasons:
1. The heavy pledge track, which is also Binance’s second round of investment, did not disclose the amount and has the same LP as above.
2. In defilama, the two TVLs are very similar.
3. At that time, there were rumors that after EHTFI, there would be Renzo and Puff.
According to the calculation of Planet Daily, based on the real-time price of ETHFI of US$3.9, the corresponding $REZ price calculated with the same FDV is US$0.39, and the weighted FDV difference is US$0.34; the corresponding $REZ price calculated with the same MC is US$0.43, and the weighted FDV difference is US$0.37.
My own calculation is 0.32, which is why the off-market valuation is between 0.3-0.4.
3. Things to consider when trading $REZ IPO.
Based on the reasonable valuation space of $REZ online analog valuation, can we think whether it is appropriate for me to place an order at 0.3-0.4 to take over? There are two aspects to consider here:
1. Information asymmetry leads to fud selling. Most traders do not have the habit of verifying information (this is the trading habit I have been advocating in the community), so airdrop and LP investors only have the concept that this coin has a lot of fud, and then sell it for u when it goes online, without thinking about the community's advice and the issue of liquidity anchoring, and making wrong pricing.
2. Where are the counterparties? In my article on $STRK trading, I wrote that Binance and other traders attracted each other’s traffic through the arbitrage space of the opening price difference, but as of press time, no new announcements have been made by other exchanges, and OK has participated in the investment in this project.
Therefore, as a trader, it is more profitable to open high at around $1 and then fall back. As for a new strategy, because the number of people reposting my articles has been too rampant recently, I will personally post it in the trader community, but I will not tweet it.
