📌【This Bitcoin halving has fundamentally changed the supply and demand relationship from the previous ones. How high can it go? What are the risks? How to operate in the alt season? 】😍😍🚀

If you want to figure this out, you can observe these tables for a long time to find the movement of large funds🫡

Find the factors that can actively bring a large amount of capital inflow and capital withdrawal to the market, and you will find the key to the future market ups and downs. Large funds can drive large price fluctuations~

Looking back, the first halving coincided with the European debt crisis and the Cyprus debt crisis. This was the first time that the niche Bitcoin entered the public's field of vision and led to the first surge/

The second halving was in 2016 when it caught up with the ICO token issuance boom. The wealth-making effect at this time led to a large amount of funds entering the crypto market/

The third was the 2020 epidemic. When this global disaster occurred, huge amounts of funds from all over the world were using Bitcoin as a hedge tool, which is the so-called golden Bitcoin in troubled times/

These factors combined with the halving of supply led to the trend of the three halvings~

It is fundamentally different from this halving. When the Bitcoin ETF passed, the door between the niche circle and the world was already open Once it is opened, huge amounts of funds can begin to directly affect the trend of Bitcoin/

If there are any more water releases/interest rate cuts/large changes in TGA accounts, etc. in the future, we will see that the crypto market's response to overflow funds has become very obvious/

And traditional professional traders and large institutions will also enter the market one after another. These long-term traders are loyal, strong and have strong stamina, and will continue to work in specific markets~

So when the impact of halving supply is getting smaller and smaller, after passive demand turns active, we can pay more attention to these demand-side liquidity data in the later stage:

The three directions that need to be paid attention to regularly are the unemployment rate data in the United States, the balance sheet size of the Federal Reserve, and the account balance of the U.S. Treasury. These are all huge sources of funds directly linked to people's wallets/

There is also a flow table for Bitcoin ETFs, which has very detailed daily increase and decrease of capital flow data of large institutions such as Grayscale Fidelity BlackRock. You can also look at these for more details, but I think it is enough to just look at the flow table of ETFs/

There are also some major events that need to be paid attention to in the near future, such as the progress of Ethereum ETF in May and the interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The next interest payment may reach 1.6 trillion, which is indeed a bit too high. If the interest rate is cut, a large amount of funds will flow into the market!

Paying attention to these five types of trends can basically grasp the trend of the market, but when there is a large inflow and outflow of funds, it is still necessary to observe through exchanges and professional on-chain data platforms/

The exchange is the portal for capital transactions. If funds want to sell on a large scale, most of them must flow through the exchange except for counter-trading/

So we can often look at the changes in the total exchange balance table and the number of Bitcoin addresses greater than 1, observe the 24-hour trading volume and position, order spread and depth, and obtain first-hand liquidity information!

📍Two risk factors need to be noted🫡

The first risk is that bull markets often experience sharp declines. Many people are afraid of making money slowly in bull markets and open high leverage, but they are greedy and do not stop profit. Usually, this will not have a good result. This can be reflected in the increasing number of liquidations after each large fluctuation/

Especially after Bitcoin has a wealth-creating effect, more than 200,000 people have liquidated their positions near some major landmark nodes, such as the 10,000 US dollars after breaking through the new high/

So if Bitcoin really hits 100,000 US dollars with the support of various favorable factors in May and June, this landmark node must not be done with high leverage!

The second risk comes from the behavior of traders in the rising market. The protagonist of the crypto market is Bitcoin. Funds will flow into Bitcoin first. When Bitcoin rises almost enough, some traders who have made money in Bitcoin will have many genius ideas. Many people will withdraw funds and put them into altcoins to eat the profits of rotation/

This is actually the biggest risk. It is difficult for us to know which coin will rise and which coin will fall. Jumping left and right will mostly be like a bear breaking a stick. Bitcoin is the currency with the highest certainty, and the long-term investment returns of these altcoins are mostly not as good as Bitcoin!

📍However, many people still choose altcoins. They believe that it is difficult for Bitcoin to increase by dozens or hundreds of times, but altcoins can be used. If you have to do it, you must have a strategy!

The decision-making window for altcoins is relatively short. Often, when we discover them, they have already completed a wave and are about to start a large correction. We can either plan ahead or enter the market decisively, and we must choose the market where we can make money with our eyes closed.

For example, the market where Bitcoin went from more than 50,000 to 70,000 US dollars a few days ago, the rotation of altcoins was very obvious. At this time, as long as it is a hot currency, we can decisively buy it as soon as it breaks through when we see that the capital inflow is abnormally high. It can rise by about 20% on the same day, or at least 10%. This is the benefit of the general rise in the market.

Most people can make money as long as they are not greedy. There is no technology to speak of. Just look at the energy tide of one hour and four hours, and then see if there is any abnormal inflow of funds. As long as you can make money in this market where you can close your eyes, it is very simple!

If you want to bet on altcoins in advance, you need to do some research, at least to know the current trend, hot spots and topics worth hyping, what are their sector leaders/

Then use a small part of the funds to make an investment portfolio, such as buying five to ten currencies, to see the final portfolio returns. As long as two or three of them can run out, this group of orders will basically not lose money!

The last sentence, the main focus is still on Bitcoin, I wish you good morning, good afternoon, and good night, bye~#大盘走势 #BTC大饼减半，