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Option 1: Using YT’s transaction cost estimates
First, we make a rough rounding of the deposit cycle and average TVL: calculated based on the scoring TVL of 400,000 ETH * the scoring cycle of 120 days, the ETHFI on Pendle is calculated at an annualized rate of 40%.
If Pendle is reasonably priced, take the opportunity cost of YT = 400000 120/360 40% ≈ $213 million.
Calculated based on the 6% airdrop, the reasonable market value = 1.94 billion U.S. dollars, approximately $3.55 per currency.
Considering that ETHFI was the first LRD to be listed on BN, and before the official announcement, the price of ether.fi's YT on Pendle was higher than that of other YT, there is reason to believe that it was smarter to buy YT's Money at that time, and There are many other characteristics (such as being the first to go to a major law firm and having a good project background).
Taking into account the market, FOMO sentiment and the new coin effect, and YT Buyer can't just make back its money, 3.5 would be a conservative estimate.
Note: EL points are not considered, and EL points and risk premium are hedged for the time being.
Method 2: Calculate the necessary yield rate for BNB and fdUSD mining
After detailed calculation, the reasonable valuation given is 4.5-7U, but: (1) The quota allocated to Launchpool is 2%, and the shares of other parts are relatively large, and the points mining participating accounts are as high as 75,266, and the chips are relatively scattered. (2) The price of BNB has increased significantly, the frequency of new releases has increased, and the base for calculating market value will also change.
Therefore, my estimate will be a little more cautious, and the upper limit of reasonable valuation will be 6U.
Method 3: Comparative analysis
Lido currently has a TVL of US$38.4 billion + a market capitalization of US$2.6 billion, with a TVL market capitalization ratio of approximately 14.7x. ether.fi has a TVL of approximately US$3.2 billion, with a corresponding circulating market capitalization of US$217 million, which is approximately US$1.88 based on the initial circulation of US$115.2 million.
However, considering that TVL and market capitalization do not grow at a uniform rate, $1.88 is also an undervalued price. 3.55 represents an 88% premium over 1.88, which is within a reasonable range.
To sum up, it is expected that the reasonable opening price range of ETHFI is $3.5-6
