How high could the #Bitcoin price go this cycle? What about next cycle?
No one knows. But @Excellion and @dotkrueger have both recently predicted $1m as a target for #BTC this cycle. Does that sound crazy? I don't think so. I decided to get some perspective by zooming out and taking a 10-year view of the price of #Bitcoin using weekly candles.Â
What's clear is that #Bitcoin is in the same long-term uptrend since 2013 as defined by the channel below. All price action since 2013 is contained within the boundaries of this long-term channel.Â
Where could prices go if #Bitcoin starts heading toward the upper trend line in the long-term channel, as it has done after every previous halving? The price seems to be breaking out on the daily right now. Where's it heading? The long-term trend can give us a glimpse into what sort of price levels we might expect, assuming the current trend remains intact.Â
On the chart below, notice how BTC is crawling up the lower trend line just like it did in 2015 and 2016 before it blasted across the channel in 2017 and culminated in a $20,000 blow off top. It's doing EXACTLY the same thing now. Bitcoin did a 100x that cycle. It would take a 40x to cross the channel from here and reach the upper trend line by winter 2025.
Blow off tops marked the peak of the 2013 and 2017 bull runs. But 2021 was cut short. If #BTC makes up for that by reaching the upper trend line 18 months after the halving in another blow-off top, we'd reach $2m per coin this in fall/winter 2025, and more than $20m per coin in 2029. NO ONE Is expecting that, which is why it might happen. đ đ
