A few days ago, I invited
@Joylou1209 , @Phyrex_Ni , @lianyanshe
The three bosses discussed, and I was very glad to have this scope for discussion, because in the entire social media, there are too many people who just talk about the facts, there are too few people who can think continuously and systematically, and there are very few traders in the real risk market.
A few key issues:
1. Lian Yanshe believes that the implementation of ETF and Grayscale selling orders will have a certain impact on the overall market, and the market risk has been realized in advance. In the above discussion, I mainly focused on the risk market. In addition to saying that the content of tomorrow's interest rate meeting will be dovish, the subsequent response to the two events of BTFP and interest rate cut may cause a pullback in the market.
2. The boss of Funilace discussed the trade-off between high interest rates and strong employment, which is very similar to Joylou’s main trading theme this year.
3. We cannot simply understand that from March to June, I and several bosses were bearish, or that we were bottom-fishing at that time. We should look at the expectation of black swans or market adjustments from the perspective of positions, and trade according to funds. It cannot be ignored that even if there are black swans from March to June, there is a possibility of shocks and rises after adjustments in February, and even if the price after the black swan adjustment is not necessarily lower than the price at the end of February. If you are currently in a short position, you may not be able to get on the train in the bull market, because the early stage of the current bull market has arrived. In terms of the main line, ETF variables bring in capital such as BlackRock, and the price you take over and the shutdown price after halving are in the same range. This is a state where the cycle cost is very certain and profitable. The significance of our discussion of such issues at this time is that if we continue to confirm the expectation of black swans and reduce positions (based on positions), this is also a trading opportunity, and under the recovery and macro-positive factors after the black swan is eliminated, according to the utilization rate of funds, right-side transactions are carried out. I did this transaction once when I increased my position by 1 million dollars last year.
4. What I want to explain more is why I said the center of the cycle is 4.2w dollars. This is mainly derived from the response to this friend's question, and the definition of this cycle I prefer to a large bull-bear cycle.
(1) At .519, BTC dropped from the range of 4.2-4.3 to 2.9.
(2) In August 2021, BTC ended its shock and began to recover at 4.2w, reaching the bull peak of 6.9 in November.
(3) Even after the market came down from the bull peak, it took three months to oscillate around 4.2 to confirm the support space.
The same is true for my own trading main line within the cycle, including the main line emphasized by cycle traders like Fu Ge @FLS_OTC, who are very active in the cycle. This is also the way for most non-traders to make profits more easily.
During the two bull-bear cycles, I recorded the transaction volume, on-chain behavior, and protocol actions before and after various extreme market conditions such as 312 and 519, which was used to judge the behavior in the stages of turning, recovery, frenzy, and recession. This is also the reason for my large spot operations during the cycle. Large spot operations are rarely carried out. Based on this logic, referring to the article I wrote earlier on the logic of building positions on the left side, you can keep a good cost and wait for the arrival of wealth.
