The first week of the new year is coming to an end, and I want to consider the market situation. The year for Ethereum and Bitcoin opened in the flat zones of 90-95k and 3250-3500. Thanks to this, the new annual candle is swinging quite calmly. However, in my opinion, this calmness is deceptive. The current wave of purchases is so far only a retest of the key level of 100k for Bitcoin, from where there is a high probability of a bear attack. For many altcoins that have shown growth by today, this is also only a retest of the last resistance.
The currency market also closed the first week extremely negatively, with a confident rise of the dollar. In my opinion, from the current pullback in crypto, there is a high probability of resuming sales, which we observed at the end of the year, with an attempt to continue the trend in Bitcoin aiming for a retest of 75-85k. In this case, already today or tomorrow, the crypto market may align with the currency market, with significant sales, even leading to new lows for the week on certain coins.
In an optimistic scenario, Ethereum will hold 3500 and open the new week higher due to increasing divergence in the eth/btc pair, thanks to starting the year above 0.0035. In this case, with smooth stable sales of Bitcoin, altcoins will still have opportunities for growth and the altcoin index to rise further by 15%. The probability of this scenario, in my opinion, currently prevails.
In a more negative scenario, sales of Bitcoin and Ethereum will be more aggressive. In this case, Bitcoin may show a sharp increase in dominance, and money from the market will go to smooth out the drop in Bitcoin. The altcoin index may drop to a retest of 9%, which will lead to new lows for most coins.
In the current picture and the threat of a move to 75k for Bitcoin, I still recommend carefully weighing money management and reducing positions for those who have not done so in the wave of growth before the new year. Next week, it will be possible to weigh the activity of sellers and make more confident forecasts.
As I expected, this week there was another manipulation with tags from Binance. It is no coincidence that before the change of the year I recommended sales of troy with a probable move to 0.0025; it was already obvious at that time that there was no fulfillment of higher targets and a reversal for a retest of the lows. After assigning the tag, a test of 0.0015-25 is likely.
As I wrote in the previous article, in the absence of a monitoring tag, the most interesting instrument in the current market becomes vib. If Binance did not consider the dynamics of the token too weak, there is a high probability of continuing growth reversing the medium-term trend to bullish, with a breakout above 0.25+ and the addition of futures. There is already a successful absorption of sales from the end of the year and an attempt to return to trend. In an optimistic scenario, if vib/btc breaks above 0.00000100, there is a chance for a strong impulse to surpass last week's high and in the pair to udt. In the current overbought market, vib remains the most oversold token on Binance, which retains a high growth potential. There has also been repeated growth of vib against Bitcoin, creating a divergence in vib/btc. Such a picture may repeat this week. In case of a successful breakout, vib could show pleasant dynamics, and vite, which also remains the most oversold on Binance, has very high technical targets for a retest. However, due to the monitoring tag, attempts to grow vite most often happen last before the week's close.
On average, for most altcoins, I expect synchronous movement with the altcoin index until the further dynamics of the tops are determined in the new week. The likelihood of trendy breakouts or confident growth ahead of the altcoin index next week, in my opinion, is quite weak.