On Monday evening, U.S. stock indices opened lower, with the Nasdaq opening down over 1.3%, and the intraday decline narrowing to 0.7%; the S&P 500 index opened down over 1%, with the intraday decline also narrowing to 0.7%. There is one day left until the start of 2025, and two days until traders returning from the holiday break (New Year's Day market closure). Positions cleared for profit-taking at the end of 2024 will be replenished at the start of 2025, as market liquidity gradually recovers, waiting for a rebound.
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The IRS has issued final regulations requiring brokers to report digital asset transactions, incorporating decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms into the existing tax framework. This rule will take effect in 2027, and brokers must begin collecting and reporting data starting in 2026. The IRS estimates that between 650 and 875 DeFi brokers will be affected, potentially impacting up to 2.6 million taxpayers. These regulations mainly target 'front-end service providers' that facilitate digital asset trading on decentralized exchanges (DEX). According to the IRS, classifying these platforms as brokers will help ensure tax compliance. Alex Thorn, the head of research at Galaxy Digital, stated that if the IRS does not withdraw its classification of DeFi front-ends as 'brokers', the DeFi industry will face three options: comply with the IRS reporting requirements and accept the broker classification, attempt to block users from the U.S., or abandon smart contract upgrades and revenue generation. The Block Pro data shows that VCs invested about $13.7 billion in cryptocurrency and blockchain startups in 2024, a 28% increase from 2023. However, this is still below the peak of $33.3 billion in 2022 and $29 billion in 2021. According to IntoTheBlock data, the total proportion of long-term ETH holders rose from 59% in January 2024 to 75% by the end of the year. DefiLlama data indicates that the total market value of stablecoins increased by 0.49% in the past week, reaching $205.365 billion.
According to HODL15Capital data, the U.S. BTC spot ETF has been online for 50 weeks, with BlackRock's IBIT holdings increasing from 2,621 BTC in the first week to 552,555 BTC, fully absorbing the selling pressure from Grayscale's GBTC, whose BTC holdings fell from 619,200 BTC in the first week to 206,860 BTC. Matrixport stated that BTC is digesting the price surge of the past few weeks, during which open interest in futures surged from $18 billion in October to $29 billion, an increase of 50%. Historical data shows that after such rapid accumulation, there is usually a brief consolidation period, after which the bull market may continue, especially in light holiday trading conditions, as traders look toward the new year, anticipating whether new capital inflows will push prices up and reignite the upward trend. Cointelegraph reported that mining company Blockware stated in its market forecast report that BTC prices could reach between $150,000 and $400,000 by 2025, depending on whether Trump promotes BTC reserves and the Fed's interest rate policies. If Trump does not push for reserves, $150,000 is a conservative estimate; if the Fed cuts rates and companies accelerate BTC adoption, prices could reach $225,000. In the most optimistic scenario, if Trump increases BTC reserves and promotes corporate adoption, prices could exceed $400,000. According to HODL15Capital data, FTX's first round of repayment distribution, which will take effect on January 3, 2025, includes $16 billion in cash. The first round of distribution will start within 60 days after the effective date.
Last week, the U.S. BTC spot ETF saw a cumulative net outflow of $377.6 million; the U.S. ETH spot ETF had a cumulative net inflow of $349.3 million, with BlackRock and Fidelity collectively increasing their holdings by 101,390 ETH, approximately $342.2 million. On December 30, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor stated that the company has increased its holdings by 2,138 BTC at an average price of approximately $97,837, totaling about $209 million. The company has spent a total of $22 billion this year to increase its holdings to 257,250 BTC and currently holds 446,400 BTC, with a total acquisition cost of approximately $27.9 billion and an average acquisition price of approximately $62,428. As of December 23, 60 companies collectively held 591,368 BTC, valued at approximately $55.88 billion. Former German Finance Minister Christian Lindner believes that the European Central Bank and the German Bundesbank should consider incorporating cryptocurrencies like BTC into their reserves, citing similar considerations in the U.S. as the basis for this suggestion. Germany and Europe should not be left behind in this area again. Galaxy Research predicts that BTC will break through $150,000 in the first half of 2025, reaching $185,000 in the fourth quarter, driven by adoption from institutions, corporations, and the U.S., with its market capitalization reaching 20% of the gold market value. Coinglass data shows that in the past eight years, ETH has seen price increases in six first quarters. Especially in the first quarter of the new year following the U.S. elections, ETH achieved quarterly increases of 518.14% and 160.7% respectively in 2017 and 2021.
In December, the U.S. ETH spot ETF saw a cumulative net inflow of over $2.1 billion, a record high. Asset management giant VanEck predicts that ETH will reach $6,000 by 2025. Analyst TMV states that ETH has entered an accumulation wave, which may help the price break through $4,400 in the first quarter, but if it pulls back below $2,914, that theory will fail. Institutional analysis indicates that many traders are leaving their desks and entering holiday mode before the new year, with the dollar remaining stable in light holiday trading. Data released on Monday showed: the Chicago PMI in December softened for the third consecutive month, falling from 40.2 in November to 36.9, the second lowest since 2020, consistent with other economic data, including the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value (from 49.7 to 48.3) and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (from -5.5 to -16.4), indicating a significant weakening of the U.S. economy. Wells Fargo stated that U.S. stock indices may see a 7% drop after a rebound following the election (the S&P 500 index's previous high was 6,099 points, currently at 5,930 points), but Wells Fargo remains optimistic about the overall performance of U.S. stock indices in 2025, predicting that the S&P 500 index could end the year around 6,500 to 6,700 points.
Reuters reports: On January 20, Trump will be inaugurated and is expected to issue at least 25 executive orders on his first day, covering a range of issues from immigration to energy and cryptocurrency policy. The excitement surrounding Trump’s policies is expected to boost the outlook for sectors such as banking, energy, and cryptocurrency. In 2024, net inflows into BTC ETFs reached $36.8 billion, with ten spot ETFs holding over 1.408 million BTC. The correlation between BTC and U.S. stock assets is becoming stronger, indicating that macroeconomic variables driving stock indices are also shaping the crypto market, which is expected to continue throughout the Fed's entire easing cycle. In December, BTC reached $100,000, with its market capitalization growing to $2 trillion. In 2024, BTC's market capitalization grew by 141%, ETH's by 72%, and the rest of the altcoin market by 129%. Among the top 10 altcoins by market capitalization, only 25 performed better than BTC. On Monday evening, U.S. stock indices opened lower, with the Nasdaq opening down over 1.3%, and the intraday decline narrowing to 0.7%; the S&P 500 index opened down over 1%, with the intraday decline also narrowing to 0.7%. BTC fell below $92,000, rebounding to $94,000, with an increase of 0.5%, while ETH rose by 1%. There is one day left until the start of 2025, and two days until traders returning from the holiday break (New Year's Day market closure). Positions cleared for profit-taking at the end of 2024 will be replenished at the start of 2025, as market liquidity gradually recovers, waiting for a rebound. There is hope for a bull market in 2025, as enthusiastic as in 2013/2017/2021.