History cannot be repeated, but it is always strikingly similar.
The bull markets in 2017 and 2021 were almost always accompanied by Bitcoin halving events. Whenever Bitcoin's block reward is halved, it means that the supply of new Bitcoins is reduced. This imbalance between supply and demand usually causes the number of Bitcoins on the market to become more scarce, thereby driving up prices.
1. 2025: A crazy bull market based on historical laws
Historically, Bitcoin BTC halving events always occur about once every four years. The most recent one occurred in May 2020, and the next one is expected to be in May 2024. Assuming that the market behavior after Bitcoin halving continues the past rules, 2025 may usher in another crazy bull market. The reason is simple: the supply tightening effect brought about by the halving will prompt the market to usher in an influx of funds. Many institutional investors may choose to enter the market around the halving in 2024, thereby driving prices soaring. This phenomenon has been verified in both 2017 and 2021.
2. 2026: Possibility of a bear market
According to historical data, the bull market usually peaks within about a year after the Bitcoin halving. Therefore, 2025 may be the peak of the bull market, but as the market supply and demand relationship stabilizes and investors are under pressure to take profits, the market may enter a bear market in 2026. By then, market funds will withdraw, and the cryptocurrency market may face a major adjustment again.
3. The impact of ETFs: Could the bull market come early?
However, it is worth paying attention to the launch of Bitcoin ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds), which may have a profound impact on historical cycles. If the Bitcoin ETF is approved and begins to attract large-scale capital inflows, this may push the market into a bull market ahead of schedule. ETFs will make it easier for institutional investors and traditional capital to participate in the Bitcoin market, thereby pushing up the price of Bitcoin in advance, and may even lead to the bull market coming early, no longer relying entirely on the traditional laws of the halving cycle.
