Hotspot Interpretation:
QCP: #MicroStrategy This week’s increase #BTC is the smallest purchase amount in recent weeks, raising questions in the market. MicroStrategy announced on Monday that it spent $561 million to purchase 5,262 Bitcoins at an average price of about $106,662, raising the company's total Bitcoin holdings on its balance sheet to 444,262. However, QCP analysts noted, 'This is its smallest purchase amount in recent weeks, raising questions about its appetite for buying Bitcoin at current levels.' In addition, analysts from QCP Capital pointed out in a report on Tuesday that, as 2024 approaches its end, #加密货币立场 enthusiasm seems to be waning. As of Monday, spot Bitcoin #etf has seen outflows for three consecutive days.
We believe that MicroStrategy's recent Bitcoin purchases demonstrate its continued optimism towards cryptocurrencies. Although the amount of the latest purchase is relatively small, being the smallest in recent weeks, it may reflect the company's cautious attitude amid market volatility. This behavior of MicroStrategy may also be related to market sentiment, as enthusiasm in the cryptocurrency market seems to be waning as 2024 approaches its end, with outflows from the spot Bitcoin ETF for three consecutive days. There may be some uncertainty in the market, and investors are taking a wait-and-see approach regarding the future of the cryptocurrency market. MicroStrategy's buying behavior, although reduced in scale, still shows confidence in the long-term value of Bitcoin and may also have a certain impact on market sentiment, especially after the company was included in the Nasdaq 100 index, as its actions may receive broader market attention.
Glassnode: The severity of market pullbacks during the Bitcoin bull market is gradually decreasing. Data disclosed by the on-chain analysis company Glassnode shows that although significant price increases in the Bitcoin bull market are typically accompanied by extreme selling pressure, the severity of market pullbacks during each bull market is gradually weakening as the market size expands. The deepest pullback of this cycle occurred on August 5, 2024, with a drop of 32%. During most pullbacks, the Bitcoin price only fell below the local high by 25%, indicating that the volatility of this cycle is among the lowest so far. This may reflect that the launch of spot ETFs has opened a huge demand window, while institutional investors' interest is also steadily growing. The supply of most short-term holders (in terms of coin count) is operating 'underwater' compared to their cost price, but they have not suffered extreme unrealized losses associated with market deterioration.
We believe that the data reveals an improvement in the maturity of the Bitcoin market. In the current Bitcoin bull market, despite the significant price increase, the severity of market pullbacks is diminishing, and the market's acceptance and stability of Bitcoin are increasing. During most pullbacks, Bitcoin's price only fell below the local high by 25%, and the volatility of this cycle is among the lowest so far. This may be because the launch of spot ETFs has brought huge demand to the market, while institutional investors' interest is also steadily growing. The supply of most short-term holders is operating 'underwater' compared to their cost price, but they have not suffered extreme unrealized losses associated with market deterioration. Market participants have strong confidence in the long-term holding of Bitcoin. The Bitcoin market is becoming more mature and robust, and the behavior of market participants is also becoming more rational, which is a positive signal for the long-term development of Bitcoin.
Data: Among 25 listed mining companies, only 7 achieved positive returns by the end of 2024. As of today, Bitcoin has risen 113% in 2024. According to the hash rate index and Google Finance data, most listed mining companies are in a downward trend in their stock prices by the end of 2024, with declines of up to 84%. Among the 25 listed mining companies in this index, only 7 achieved positive returns. So far, Bitdeer (BTDR) has risen 167%, Cipher (CIFR) has risen 33%, Hut 8 (HUT) has risen 91%, Iris Energy (IREN) has risen 72%, Northern Data (NB2) has risen 58%, Core Scientific (CORZQ) has risen 327%, and TeraWulf (WULF) has risen 169%. On the other hand, Argo Blockchain (ARB) has fallen 84%, followed by Sphere 3D (ANY) down 69% (just to name a few). Bitcoin miners' cumulative revenue exceeds $71 billion. The income for miners on December 22 was $42 million, while the peak in April exceeded $100 million.
We believe that the significant rise in Bitcoin prices in 2024 shows a clear divergence from the stock prices of listed mining companies. From this perspective, the asset price trends between the crypto market and the mining industry seem to have a low correlation. Most listed mining companies have seen their stock prices decline, with only 7 achieving positive returns, which may be related to rising mining costs, concerns about the profitability of mining companies in the market, and the reduction in Bitcoin mining rewards. Companies like Bitdeer (BTDR), Cipher (CIFR), and Hut 8 (HUT) have achieved positive returns, and we should pay more attention to the business models and core advantages of these mining companies. Even after experiencing a halving this year, mining activities remain active, with Bitcoin miners' cumulative revenue exceeding $71 billion, currently down from the peak in April, but miner revenue is still substantial. Some mining companies face challenges, but the overall mining sector remains attractive against the backdrop of rising Bitcoin prices.
BTC Data:
The liquidation map shows that if BTC falls to $90,560, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on mainstream CEX is $770 million. If BTC rises to $100,000, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on mainstream CEX is $1.517 billion. Current high-leverage contract positions are distributed in the $93,300-$98,000 range.
