Bitcoin has the potential to hit new highs (ATHs), driven by favorable policies from the Trump administration, increased inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and advances in stablecoin technology.

The pro-crypto approach of Trump-appointed SEC officials is creating a more favorable environment for digital assets. Bitcoin hit a record high this year, boosted by the approval of U.S. spot ETFs and Trump's election victory, although some assets have outperformed Bitcoin.





Both Bitcoin and Ethereum will see significant developments by 2025, driven by the expected approval of a U.S. cryptocurrency ETF and the possible establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

What risks are there in the upcoming market?

Cyclical top risk

Predictions about cycle tops need constant self-corrections. While I don’t think we are close to a cycle top, it must be continually reassessed. A cycle top isn’t necessarily an 'event,' but more of a spectrum that gradually approaches over time.

SBR cash-out risk

With Trump's administration, everyone will be watching his actions. Although Bitcoin is expected to see regulatory tailwinds, it would be quite bearish if the president completely forgets about it. Possible risks I see include: SBR being forgotten; or more likely, SBR won't happen but will advance in some other way.

For the latter case (switching SBR plans), this could initially appear bearish but ultimately bullish as long as the plan itself supports Bitcoin.

In summary: The emergence of bullish signals means the bull market continues; the emergence of bearish signals means plans must be reassessed—the bull market may continue, but the odds will decrease.

Supply risk

In 2024, we witnessed crazy macro conditions in the summer, with the stock market hitting all-time highs, but the cryptocurrency market fell more than it rose, due to the continuous selling pressure from major suppliers like MtGox, the German government, Grayscale GBTC, etc.

Supply risk can never be eliminated. There will always be someone holding a large amount of Bitcoin—like the UK government, Silk Road on the dark web, FTX holdings, or any other entity. This is something you must keep an eye on, but in my view, if everything goes smoothly, these events could be good buying opportunities.

Macro risks

I believe that fewer rate cuts still count as rate cuts. While this is 'less bullish,' the fact is that as long as rates continue to decline, liquidity will improve.

Once again, the emergence of bullish signals means the bull market will continue. Unless there is an interest rate hike or no cuts, the macro economy should be favorable for digital assets.

What coins can the subsequent market buy to continue?

The era of 'buy and hold forever' is long gone. Despite a 10x increase in 2023, Solana's overall performance in 2024 is nearly on par with Bitcoin; so-called leaders like TAO have not benefited from the AI boom we’ve seen in recent months; and for meme tokens, even dogs are no longer wearing hats (WIF), Chill guy is no longer chill, and the hippopotamus (MOODENG) seems to be at the end of its tether...

Nothing on this list can make you 'buy and hold.'

Additionally, I like to think about one question—who are the marginal buyers? In this market, there are basically 3 main marginal buyers—institutions (traditional finance players), funds (liquid funds/native crypto funds), and gamblers (contract traders, on-chain players, etc.).

A good narrative must be bought by at least one party. Let’s get straight to the point.

AI

Yes, AI will still be a hot topic. I believe the next wave is about to arrive.

Macro level: Hype > Fundamentals > Utility;

Micro level: Reply guy > Infrastructure > Application/Embodiment.

Buying and holding will not yield good results. GOAT was the beginning of it all, but it has dropped 60% from its peak and may continue to perform poorly.

Top choices: application technology, Swarms, gaming, consumer-focused AI.

Projects like ALCH (game development), Griffain (helping control wallets), Digimon, ai16z (the king of all AI) are, in my opinion, top choices, and there may be many more that I missed.

DeFi

This doesn't need much explanation. DeFi will continue to be a great narrative, however investing in DeFi is very difficult, as there are really very few tokens that will benefit from it. Even if they do benefit, they may not rise (just look at the LST track).

To be honest, in terms of risk-reward, this wouldn't be my first choice, but I think this will be a narrative that continues to grow until 2025.

Top choices: AAVE / ENA / Morpho / Euler / USUAL;

Secondary choices: stablecoins / payment-related tokens.

Layer1

I might face a lot of hatred for saying this, but I believe the trading opportunities in Layer 1 have returned. HYPE has undoubtedly performed well, but SUI was actually looked down upon when it was around $1, yet it rose to $2 and is now at $4. I think the market has been consistently missing out on Layer 1 trading—it’s one of those areas that nobody is paying attention to, yet it holds tremendous opportunities (the fact that HYPE has already multiplied by 10 is proof).

Top choices: SUI/HYPE;

Secondary choice: Abstract.

Other narratives

Data tokens: Kaito / Arkm;

meme tokens: I only like PEPE, the others... seem outdated;

DePIN: PEAQ / HNT;

Ordinals;

Old altcoins: XRP;

Old DeFi: CRV / CVX.

The above content roughly summarizes my expectations for 2025. The best advice and insight is actually 'stay flexible and enjoy the journey.' The market will continue to change, but that is just part of the game of life.

No one can execute the same trade twice. Because trades are different, and people are different.

Good luck to everyone, we will meet on the other side. If you make life-changing profits in the process, remember to use it to change your life.

Since Bitcoin doesn't drop when it falls, it indicates that altcoins have reached a relative bottom, and Bitcoin cannot keep falling forever, it will rebound, and when Bitcoin rebounds, altcoins will rebound even more.