Today's Major Events
1. After obtaining approval from the Israeli Securities Authority (ISA), six mutual funds tracking Bitcoin prices will officially launch in Israel next week. These six companies will start operating on the same day, December 31, and will be provided by Migdal Capital Markets, More, Ayalon, Phoenix Investment, Meitav, and IBI, with management fees ranging from 1.5% to 0.25%. One of the funds will adopt active management, aiming to outperform Bitcoin's performance.
2. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov stated on Wednesday that legislative changes in Russia now allow businesses to use Bitcoin and other digital currencies in international payments.
This year, Russia has allowed the use of cryptocurrencies in foreign trade and has taken steps to legalize cryptocurrency mining, including Bitcoin. Siluanov stated in an interview with the Russia 24 channel: "As part of the experimental regime, we can use Bitcoin mined in Russia (for foreign trade transactions)."
3. Data from the Bank of Korea shows that by the end of November, the total number of cryptocurrency investors in South Korea has surpassed 15.59 million for the first time, accounting for over 30% of the national population, with total assets amounting to 102.6 trillion won (approximately $79 billion). The average daily trading volume is approaching the total of the domestic stock market. Driven by expectations of pro-crypto policies following Trump's election as President of the United States, Bitcoin's price rose nearly 35% in November, significantly increasing activity in the South Korean crypto market. Among them, the average amount held by investors on the top five exchanges reached 6.58 million won (approximately $5,070), with 610,000 new investors added in November.
Additionally, the scale of deposits in crypto exchanges that have not been put into the market has also increased to 8.8 trillion won (approximately $6 billion).
4. The founder of ETHDenver stated: "Trump's focus on deregulation and promoting economic growth may create ideal conditions for the flourishing of DeFi. That said, we need policies that protect innovation while allowing builders to experiment without fear." Jawad Ashraf, CEO of Web3 company Vanar, also stated that the more direct impact on DeFi is that the new U.S. government may provide clearer regulations on whether crypto tokens qualify as financial securities. This will lead to more conversion of fees and make it possible to legally distribute protocol income to token holders in the form of dividends.
II. Market Data
1. Yesterday, the Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $338 million, while the Ethereum spot ETF experienced a net inflow of $53.54 million. (The recent continuous inflow into the Ethereum ETF suggests that re-entry opportunities may arise.)
2. Coinbase International's total trading volume exceeded $119 billion last week, setting a new historical record. The total volume for that week was 124% higher than the previous week, while the daily average for the past week was 164% higher than the average of the week before. In November, Coinbase International's daily average trading volume was only $2.5 billion. By December, the exchange's daily average trading volume neared $10 billion. The top five trading pairs on Coinbase International include perpetual futures for BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and DOGE, accounting for 99.8% of the exchange's total trading volume. BTC-PERP accounts for 57% of the total trading volume, followed by ETH-PERP at 34%.
3. The emerging CEX platforms, Bitget and Gateio, have been quietly reaching new highs. Yesterday, the market cap of BGB rose to 23rd place in the cryptocurrency rankings, with a circulating market cap of $8.12 billion and a total market cap of $11.61 billion. BGB briefly touched $5.89 USDT, currently quoted at $5.81, with a 24-hour increase of nearly 18.34%, and a month-to-date increase of 228.13%, continuing to set historical highs. Coinglass data shows that the top three centralized exchanges by 24-hour Bitcoin contract trading volume are Binance, Bitget, and Coinbase, with Binance at $23.35 billion, Bitget at $15.95 billion, and Coinbase at $12.61 billion. In terms of Ethereum contract trading volume, Bitget's 24-hour contract trading volume reached $5.29 billion, ranking third. The rise of Bitget's market share has reached current levels; the rise of the platform token is like justice—delayed but not absent. Meanwhile, Gate's platform token GT broke $14, reaching a high of $14.5, currently quoted at $14.499, continuing to set historical highs, with a 24-hour increase expanding to 5.56%.
4. The proportion of Runes transactions on the Bitcoin network has dropped to a new low, accounting for only 1.67% of daily transactions, a significant decline from its earlier dominance this year. The decrease in Runes activity aligns with broader market dynamics and shifts in investor focus: Bitcoin's price volatility has diverted attention from experimental protocols like Runes and Ordinals, which are often seen as high-risk applications.
Other areas, such as AI agents, Meme coins, and Ethereum NFTs, have occupied market share, possibly leading to a decrease in interest in Bitcoin-based token protocols. However, as Bitcoin's price stabilizes, history shows that people's attention may shift back to ecological projects like Runes and Ordinals.
According to HTX market data, RUNECOIN has risen over 25% in 24 hours, currently quoted at $0.0025. III. Industry-related Knowledge During the Christmas holiday, traditional markets enter a shutdown, but the crypto market has seen significant increases driven by Bitcoin. The current maximum pain point for BTC options is $84,000, while the maximum pain point for ETH is $3,000. However, based on market performance, this year's annual maximum pain point is likely to become invalid, similar to previous years. Additionally, short-term implied volatility (IV) has continued to decline since yesterday, with market makers nearing the end of their position adjustments; it is expected that IV will remain stable before the end of the year.
During the Christmas holiday until the end of year settlement period, BTC market liquidity is poor, requiring little momentum for fluctuations, and may continue to show volatile trends. However, some smaller coins are no longer following BTC's ups and downs and are starting to move independently. Let's first look at the currently active altcoins:
UXLINK once surged past $3.8 but has now retraced to $3.47, up over 90% in 24 hours; COW broke $1.2, currently quoted at $1.201, with a 24-hour increase of 46.58%;
VITA has broken through $6.58 on-chain, setting a historical high, currently quoted at $6.586, with a 24-hour increase of 20.61%, and a market cap of approximately $166 million.
Affected by the BIO airdrop news, RIF briefly rose by 25%, currently quoted at $0.067; URO briefly rose by 15%, currently quoted at $0.075.
Pump Science indicates that URO and RIF holders will receive BIO airdrops. The current altcoin season index is 47; once liquidity recovers after the holidays, market activity usually rebounds significantly. It is expected that influenced by Trump's support, funds will continue to actively invest in the crypto industry.
BTC has seen corrections, while altcoins show steady growth—this is the first sign of the arrival of altcoin season. This was evidenced by the large capital rebalancing towards altcoins yesterday.
#“圣诞老人行情”再现 #萨尔瓦多将“加速”增持BTC #2025加密趋势预测
Currently, the market is turbulent; walking alone can be lonely. Follow me for daily spot potential layouts and bull market strategy layouts.
