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Current situation:
• Current price: $10.874.
• RSI: 44.83 (in the bearish zone, but close to neutral).
• OBV: 7.44 (decrease in volumes indicates weakening bullish impulse).
• SAR: $12.624 (bearish trend) and $12.320.
• EMA:
o 20-day moving average: $11.601 (nearest resistance).
o 50-day moving average: $11.146.
o 100-day moving average: $10.296 (nearest support).
o 200-day moving average: $9.871.
• Ichimoku cloud:
o Upper boundary: $11.709.
o Lower boundary: $11.704.
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Formation:
Price is in a descending triangle. The upper boundary is being tested, indicating the possibility of a breakout upwards or a bounce downwards.
Triangle, a breakout upwards is likely to lead to a strong bullish impulse.
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Key levels:
Resistances:
1. $11.601 – $11.709: Upper boundary of the triangle and resistance EMA 20 + Ichimoku cloud.
2. $12.774: Local maximum and strong resistance zone.
3. $14.457: Volume zone and next target during long impulse.
Supports:
1. $10.296: EMA 100 level and nearest support zone.
2. $9.871: EMA 200 — critical level for holding.
3. $8.050 – $8.027: Strong support zone based on volumes.
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Scenarios:
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Long scenario (60% probability):
• Conditions:
o Price breaks $11.709 (triangle boundary) and consolidates above.
o RSI rises above 50, volumes increase.
• Entry points:
1. $10.874 – $11.146: entry on retest of support after breakout.
2. $11.601 – $11.709: entry on consolidation above the triangle boundary.
• Targets:
0. $12.774: first target (local maximum).
1. $14.457: second target (strong volume zone).
• Stop-loss: Below $10.296.
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Short scenario (40% probability):
• Conditions:
o Price does not break $11.709 and returns to the triangle.
o RSI drops below 40, selling volumes increase.
• Entry points:
1. $11.601 – $11.709: entry on a bounce from the triangle boundary.
2. $10.296: entry on support breakdown.
• Targets:
0. $9.871: first target (EMA 200).
1. $8.050 – $8.027: second target (volume profile).
• Stop-loss: Above $11.709.
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Probability ratios:
• Long scenario: 60% (higher due to testing the upper boundary of the triangle).
• Short scenario: 40% (possible on a bounce from resistance or breakdown downwards).
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Conclusions:
• Holding and breaking $11.709 will lead to movement towards $12.774 and $14.457.
• Bounce from $11.709 and break down through $10.296 activates the short scenario with targets down to $8.050. #ICP
