The captain said: Can we reach one million dollars? (Part Six)
If Bitcoin reaches one million dollars each, it means a market value of 21 trillion dollars for Bitcoin, which has reached the scale of currency and can be regarded as currency.
However, if Bitcoin insists on developing within the current framework, hoping to enable low transaction fees for small payments through segregated witnesses and the lightning network, while implementing speech audits in certain communities (like /r/bitcoin), I am not optimistic about Bitcoin's future. The most likely scenario is being overtaken by better cryptocurrencies later on—much like the historical position of gold overtaking silver.
If the Bitcoin in the question refers to digital currency in general, then that day will surely come—where one or more digital currencies become the global currency.
Refutations of several common viewpoints:
Countries will not give up their right to mint currency: A certain country certainly does not want to give up its right to mint currency, but in the global context, there will always be a country that finds the benefits of giving up currency minting (not all sovereignty) and embracing digital currency outweigh the losses—this trend is already quite evident, such as Switzerland's Crypto Valley, the numerous ICO foundations in Singapore, and Japan's recognition of digital currency payments. This is the prisoner's dilemma between countries.
Major American conglomerates will oppose: Whether major American conglomerates have a consistent interest is still questionable, and there is much maneuvering among the legislative bodies of the states. Where there is opposition, there will be those who seek to take advantage—New York State has strictly regulated with a bitlicense, while the Chicago Mercantile Exchange immediately launched Bitcoin futures. Moreover, digital currency is actually a form of currency embraced by globalization that has no borders—easier to cross borders than the dollar.
Bitcoin is a deflationary currency, and the existing monetary policy does not support it at all: There is actually no definitive conclusion on whether deflation is harmful. Specific viewpoints can refer to Philip Bagus's (The Deflation Question). Perhaps humanity's exploration of monetary policy is just a local optimum, much like the thousands of years of exploration in the field of Go is merely a local optimum in AlphaGo's eyes.
The impact on those who have never participated in Bitcoin: Much like the gradual process of gold becoming currency, your ancestors did not dig/buy/store gold. Even if someone saw the value of gold before it was accepted by most, it would have been difficult for them to pass down gold through wars and natural disasters—similar to how many early Bitcoins were lost.
Compared to the formation of understanding regarding gold, the internet society has accelerated the evolution of the understanding process of digital currency—there are already millions of people globally using Bitcoin (or other digital currencies) which is only 14 years old.
Humanity has only a 45-year history of completely abandoning the gold standard and starting to use national credit currency. In the history of human civilization, this is merely a moment, yet it has shaped many people's concepts of currency.
Internet-based cryptocurrencies represent a massive transformation that occurs once in a millennium for humanity, and will not stop due to resistance from a country or group.
On the contrary, more and more smart people will embrace and join this trend—just like the history of gold's popularity, but it no longer requires a thousand years.
I hope everyone can encourage each other to read the captain's article carefully to understand its true meaning, and I also hope those who understand the captain's article can give a little support to the captain. The amount is not important; what matters is the intention, which is also the captain's motivation to persevere.$BTC