#比特币市场波动观察
The frequent fluctuations in Bitcoin prices have indeed put the market in a sensitive stage. According to the latest market analysis and forecasts, here is an analysis of the key driving factors in the current market and predictions for the future trends of Bitcoin:
1. Key driving factors in the market:
Regulatory environment changes: Under the new Trump administration, a more favorable regulatory environment for DeFi will expand DeFi scenarios, encourage exploration of less scrutiny and token value accumulation, increase the demand for DeFi tokens, and create a positive cycle for the entire on-chain ecosystem.
User experience improvement: User experience across multiple levels, such as wallets, trading terminals, and trading bots, has significantly improved. After the FTX collapse, traders have become more sensitive to counterparty risks, making on-chain activities more popular.
Monetary policy impact: The prices of crypto assets are significantly influenced by traditional risks and monetary policy factors. Contractionary monetary policy accounted for more than two-thirds of Bitcoin's sharp decline in 2022.
Crypto-specific factors: Crypto-specific factors, such as adoption and risk premium shocks, play a dominant role in explaining the variations in Bitcoin's daily returns.
2. Predictions for Bitcoin's future trends:
Macroeconomic factors: The current macro environment is in the most favorable state since 2021. Bitcoin is extremely sensitive to changes in monetary policy and global liquidity, and it is expected that interest rate cuts will continue into 2025, which will create strong macro support for risk assets.
Market demand dynamics: MicroStrategy continues to buy according to its 21/21 plan, which influences Bitcoin demand in two ways: MicroStrategy's ongoing and aggressive buying pressure and speculative funds positioning in advance to respond to future buying pressure.
Price trends: Bitcoin's price is about to close at historical highs on daily, weekly, and monthly charts, which is very bullish across all these time frames.
Short-term outlook: Under the influence of the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and adjustments in economic forecasts, the cryptocurrency market as a whole has encountered a significant pullback. Bitcoin's price once fell to the key bidding range of $100,000 to $98,000; if it cannot reclaim the support level of $100,000 to $101,400 before the daily close, the market may continue to search for a new bottom.
