Most mainstream daily lines in B circle continue to solidify upwards today, all consolidating at high levels. Whether the mainstream can break through still largely depends on BTC's performance, and we must be wary of the pattern where prolonged sideways movement before a breakout might lead to a drop. Friends who have watched previous issues can roughly know how to analyze this. Some videos might not be viewable, as they have been taken down. Anyway, just remember to catch up on the updates. You can also check on the public account and Xiaohongshu; feel free to follow along. #BTC重回关键位置后走势
Let's start with the conclusion, followed by news and technical analysis:
Regarding BTC: It is predicted to consolidate around 100000, the daily line continues to rise, and breaking previous highs has a low probability. Before December 27, there is a maximum pain point for options between 101000 and 102000, maintaining the hypothesis that after breaking the highs, it won't rise too high before December 27. The downside potential before this date is significantly greater than the upside.
Regarding BNB: Expected to fluctuate in the 700-740 range, currently in the 62nd Launchpool airdrop zone. It should be said that a lot of BNB has been locked up, which will be relatively stable, with a high correlation to BTC fluctuations and a low possibility of a significant drop.
Regarding ETH: Institutions continue to increase their holdings, which represents a relatively high opportunity for a rally among the mainstream.
Regarding the coin: As long as no one shouts, a gradual decline is a normal path. However, as long as BTC does not drop significantly, it shouldn't fall much either.
Next is the technical analysis:
1. From the candlestick chart, BTC has been consolidating above 101000 for five consecutive 4-hour candles, but the volume has been decreasing, which at least proves that the moving averages are getting higher, and this range around 100000 continues to solidify.
2. Greed and Fear Index observation: Currently at 83, which is extremely greedy; the market is in a greedy range, falling into a relatively dangerous zone, so caution is warranted.
3. BTC perpetual contract funding rate is 0.0093%, ETH is 0.0091%, slightly down from last night. There are more short positions than yesterday, with bears poised to act.
4. Observing the maximum pain point of options in the next three months: For the next three days, it will remain above 101000, but the volume is very low, lacking reference value. The focus should still be on the maximum pain point of 80000 on December 27.
5. ETFS continues to see inflows. On December 13, institutions increased their holdings by 4307 B特B, with daily increases over the past week. The situation looks good, and most institutions continue to increase their holdings. ETH also saw a continuous increase of 6081 coins. At the current price level, institutional investors and those investing through institutions are relatively confident in this price point in the short term.
6. Looking at the RSI (Relative Strength Index), it remains the same as yesterday. B特B is currently in the overbought range on a weekly basis, strong in the last 24 hours, slightly overheated, with selling pressure being relatively high. ETH is strong on a weekly basis, with relatively less selling pressure compared to B特B.
7. From the top escape index, it is currently in the middle position, with escape risk at a moderate level.
8. The B特B holding index is currently high, with a value of 1.59, making it very unsuitable for dollar-cost averaging in holding coins.
Overall judgment: BTC continues to consolidate slightly upwards, with a low probability of breaking previous highs, so we should wait for BTC to take a new direction.