If it is slow, the peak may be difficult to reach until May, at most until late April; if it is fast, it may peak during the Spring Festival after Trump takes office on January 20.
Even if the peak collapses and the bull market ends, Bitcoin is unlikely to drop by 50% within three months or 80% within a year as it has in the past. In the future, Bitcoin will become the preferred choice for large funds on Wall Street, institutional ETFs, corporate cash reserves, and foreign exchange reserves of small and medium-sized countries, while being viewed as a store of value asset allocation by the wealthy and enterprises (with appreciation of 2-5 times every four years, it is quite attractive). Bitcoin is gradually moving away from novice retail investors.
However, the collapse of altcoins may be even more severe. Once a downtrend is established, major players and institutions will undoubtedly sell off altcoins (most altcoins are nearly worthless), with a significant portion of funds converting to Bitcoin to avoid the potential explosion risk of USDT (although the risk is small). Institutions and veteran players usually hold both Bitcoin and USDT during a bear market (those with strong belief may only hold Bitcoin throughout, in any case, they won't only hold USDT). Missing out on Bitcoin's long-term surge also poses a risk. If they fail to buy back in time after liquidating, they may be left out. If they recognize the onset of a bear market and fail to liquidate in time, they can convert altcoins with BTC/X trading pairs to Bitcoin to reduce risk (Bitcoin will eventually rebound, while holding altcoins for the long term may lead to despair).
Currently, there are still 2-4 months until the peak, and frequent wave operations, such as selling low, buying high, and missing out on Bitcoin's surge after liquidating, all carry huge risks. For ordinary investors, they should focus on buying at the bottom and selling at the top (both buying and selling can be done in batches), grasping the long-term trend to achieve 70-80% returns. Attempting to eat from beginning to end, or pursuing excess returns after wave corrections, often backfires.
In the current euphoric stage of the bull market, consider laying out in the primary market, as small investments can yield big returns. Recently, I observed the Ethereum project 'puppies', which is related to the Musk concept, with promising prospects and the potential for a hundredfold return!
