Next Thursday morning, the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points, which is a certainty. The market will start to fluctuate 6 hours before the meeting, and if the outcome meets expectations, it will rally. Therefore, this is not considered a negative point; we will still focus on buying on dips and taking profits during rebounds. Then on December 19, during the day, there will be the Japanese monetary policy meeting. If there is no interest rate hike and the expectation for a hike in January is not strong, we can directly push up. In the past two days, information has been released indicating that Japan's interest rate hike has been postponed to March next year. According to the larger cycle, the real major adjustment will occur between March and May. This significant adjustment refers to a total space retracement of about 32-38% from the rise between November 5 and March, which will be reflected in a weekly level adjustment in the market. Currently, there are no signs of this, so it is inferred that there is generally no risk of deep adjustments from December to March, and buying on dips does not need to be overly cautious. The only negative factor that bulls need to guard against in the short term is a Japanese interest rate hike.
btc 98950/98850, 98250 each add 3% to position. Defend at 98000, if it falls below, reduce by 10% and buy back at 97777-97450.
Take profit points: 100850, 101400, 101800. Keep 30% of the position for chasing highs, set targets at 102900, 103500, 105000. There is a dense liquidation of short positions between 102900-105000, and it will eventually rebound to this area.
On Thursday, US stocks closed down slightly by 0.66%. Today, BTC is largely in a sideways trend, which gives ETH the opportunity to rebound without following the decline. However, as long as it does not stabilize above 4k, it can repeatedly enter the market when it retraces to 3880-3838. Once it stabilizes, a retracement to 3880 will be the bottom buying point. Next week presents opportunities for low purchases and bottom fishing, which can be attempted again in the structure.
