Macro interpretation: Looking around the global financial market, the simultaneous decline of the three major stock indexes last night became the focus. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Composite Index and the S&P 500 fell by 0.53%, 0.66% and 0.54% respectively. This decline reflects the market's uncertainty under the current economic data and the global political and economic situation. It is particularly interesting after the stock market was called out by the stock market as everything.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to 4.33%, and the gap between it and the 2-year Treasury bond yield narrowed to 13.5 basis points, which may reflect the market's expectations for future inflation. At the same time, the VIX index rose 2.5% to 13.92, showing an increase in market volatility. As a barometer of market volatility, the rise in the VIX index often indicates that the market is increasingly concerned about future uncertainties. In addition, Brent crude oil prices fell 0.29%, spot gold prices fell 1.38%, and the U.S. dollar index rose 0.34%. The price fluctuations in these commodity and currency markets also reflected the nervousness of market sentiment.
In the week, U.S. jobless claims reached 242,000, exceeding the expected 220,000, indicating potential pressure on the labor market. Additionally, the U.S. PPI for November rose by 3% year-on-year and by 0.4% month-on-month, indicating that inflationary pressures still exist. The release of this data undoubtedly increases market uncertainty regarding future economic growth and inflation expectations, thus affecting stock market performance.
In terms of international trade, Canada is considering imposing export taxes on goods exported to the United States in response to U.S. tariff threats, which could escalate trade tensions between the two countries. The Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cut interest rates by 50 basis points and stated its readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary, a decision that could impact global monetary policy.
U.S. household net worth reached a record 168.8 trillion dollars in the third quarter, indicating growth in household wealth. Meanwhile, a Texas congressman proposed establishing the #战略比特币储备 bill, which indicates the increasing status of cryptocurrencies in U.S. politics and economy. Trump's remarks and BlackRock's recommendations for Bitcoin investment also show mainstream financial institutions' recognition of cryptocurrencies.
Regarding energy demand, the IEA raised its expectations for global crude oil demand next year and expects the oil market to be well supplied by 2025. This expectation may impact the energy market, especially in the context of global economic recovery.
In terms of monetary policy, the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and removed the statement on maintaining restrictive interest rates. Traders expect the European Central Bank to reduce rates by less than 125 basis points by 2025. The Japanese House of Representatives passed a supplementary budget for fiscal year 2024, while the Bank of Japan is inclined to maintain stable interest rates next week.
Overall, the decline of the three major U.S. stock indexes last night resulted from multiple factors working together. Fluctuations in macroeconomic data, adjustments in monetary policy, changes in market sentiment, and uncertainties in the global economic and political landscape have all affected market performance to some extent.
BTC data analysis: BTC showed a fluctuating trend yesterday, peaking at around 102,540 dollars before retreating, currently dropping to around 99,200 dollars. The overall rhythm overnight was relatively consistent with the Nasdaq, showing a corrective trend. Trump rang the bell at the New York Stock Exchange, attributing the recent stock market rise to himself, mentioning that the stock market is crucial to his everything. However, the three major indexes all closed lower, with the S&P 500 fluctuating lower after opening and the Dow having declined for six consecutive trading days.
Regarding Bitcoin ETF fund flows, there was a net inflow of approximately 600 million dollars. According to data, there has been a continuous net inflow for 12 consecutive trading days since November 26.
The daily line closed with a small bearish candle, testing the previous high before retreating. The overall analysis remains unchanged, and the short-term gains and losses continue to refer to the upward trend line around 97,000, which is also a concentrated position for the main chips. Another upward trend line is around 95,000. Secondly, it is near 90,800, which has been tested twice recently. Mid-term support continues to reference around 87,000 and 85,000. Short-term resistance continues to refer to recent highs around 102,540 and 104,088 and historical highs.
