#美财政部称BTC“数字黄金”

From the perspective of the computing power required to mine Bitcoin, how much should Bitcoin be worth? I calculated it and it is about $400,000 per coin

Analyzing the theoretical value of Bitcoin from the perspective of mining costs. This is a very interesting perspective.

From the basic economic principles of Bitcoin mining, in the long-term equilibrium state, the price of Bitcoin should at least cover the marginal cost of mining. Let's analyze step by step:

1. Main cost composition:

Electricity cost: This is the main operating cost

Mining equipment cost: Including depreciation and maintenance

Cooling and site costs

Manpower and management costs

2. Key variables:

Network computing power: determines the difficulty of mining

Electricity price: It varies greatly from region to region, ranging from $0.03 to $0.10/kWh

Mining machine efficiency: Take the latest mining machine as an example, such as Antminer S19 XP, the efficiency is about 21.5 J/TH

3. Let's do a specific calculation:

Assuming that a newer mining machine is used, in an area with moderate electricity prices (US$0.05/kWh):

Electricity cost per mining machine per day:

140 TH/s × 21.5 J/TH × 24 hours × 3600 seconds × US$0.05/kWh ÷ 3600000 = about US$7.2

Other costs such as equipment depreciation account for about 40% of the total cost, then:

Total daily operating costs = 7.2 × (1 + 40%) = about $10/day

The average amount of Bitcoin that can be mined per mining machine per day:

(144 blocks × 6.25 BTC × 140 TH/s) ÷ total network computing power

The current total network computing power is about 500 EH/s (data from April 2024)

= (144 × 6.25 × 140) ÷ (500 × 10^6) ≈ 0.0000252 BTC/day

4. Therefore, to achieve a break-even:

Minimum Bitcoin price = daily cost ÷ daily output = 10 ÷ 0.0000252 ≈ $396,825

So from the perspective of mining costs, the reasonable price range of Bitcoin may be between $400,000 and $500,000. However, it should be noted that this is only an analysis from a cost perspective. The actual market price is also affected by many other factors, such as: market supply and demand, participation of institutional investors, changes in regulatory policies, performance of alternative investment products, overall market sentiment, etc.

$BTC