First, regarding the reasons for estimating potential risk dates:
Some dates I mentioned earlier that are expected to fall, I will explain in detail this time based on what logic they are inferred from. You can also try this method yourself; it's quite simple and often effective.
Estimated Reason:
1. If the current price and date do not coincide with a known significant positive news expectation, then the probability of a 4-hour level correction occurring around each ten-thousand integer level of BTC will increase (the potential first target after the correction is the previous high price x 0.93).
2. If there is a significant short-term positive expectation, then after this expectation materializes, the probability of a 4-hour level correction occurring 2-3 days later will increase.
3. If a correction begins in late month, the probability of it ending before the 7th of the next month increases.
4. Rapid corrections caused by profit-taking and concentrated outflows just before major holidays. The previously mentioned dates of 9.31, 10.31, and November 25-27 are all based on this reasoning.
5. Before confirming an uncertain positive or negative news event, it is likely to be accompanied by 'risk-averse sentiment'. Some people will take profit, and concentrated settlements will lead to a short-term price drop.
The reason why it's impossible to predict a potential bottom price in advance is:
1. A short-term bottom is always accompanied by a quick spike, and when it spreads out, the depth of this spike cannot be known in advance. Once there are friends with high leverage positions, a slight deviation of 3-4% may lead to liquidation. I hope you lose less, not that you get liquidated.
2. With the involvement of institutions, it often behaves strangely. For example, the current depth of the correction is already greater than the 4-hour bottom, but it is not at the daily bottom. If it rebounds and is suppressed by the 4-hour mid-line, then at that point, if I mention the 4-hour bottom position in advance, once that position is not the bottom, those with high leverage will be taken out. If that spot is a short-term bottom and rebounds without moving the stop loss, it is not a true reversal but a rebound in a downtrend, and the second drop will be deeper than the first. Without a stop loss, they will be taken out again. What then?
3. Regarding timeliness, I have accompanied many friends in making trades, and those who have done so know how trades are executed; it really is about watching the minute charts. When you look back, it was indeed a spike, but at that moment, it did not move that way; it was bouncing up and down chaotically. It's unrealistic to report on such volatile market conditions every second. I would prefer to send a signal when the 4-hour slope line recovers to a positive slope, to minimize losses rather than incur them.
So what do we need to pay attention to recently?
1. Today's non-farm payroll data will greatly affect this month's interest rate decision. While it is said that there is no 100% probability of a rate cut, the market is making expectations based on this price. It is as if some positive news has been released in advance, while negative expectations have not been accounted for. If the data falls short of expectations, more profit-taking will occur.
2. Next Wednesday's CPI.
3. The interest rate meetings in the U.S. and Japan on the 18th overlap.
4. Christmas effects will begin about 7 days in advance because Americans have two weeks of vacation.
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