The October scenario is still applicable up to now.
60,000 has now reached over 90,000.
Two months, 15 posts without shorting.
There will be major market movements around the Spring Festival!
The market may change, so I am revising the scenarios for my own reference or for my fans.
To play altcoins or any coin well, in-depth research on BTC is essential, or a deeper understanding is required to excel in other coins; otherwise, it's like seeing flowers in the fog or the moon in the water! One leaf blinds the eyes!
It's been a long time since I've written a detailed article on BTC. As I mentioned before, at the beginning of each month, I will write an article about BTC, with a cycle span measured in months. I've been through this over the years with BTC, though I used to just write in my notebook. Now I have a platform and fans. It's quite a happy thing. I hope everyone can work together with me. I don't seek to get rich quickly, just stability. Slow growth!
December scenario, soon it will be 2025. I don't know how many old retail investors know one thing: there will be a particularly large market trend around the Spring Festival every year. It's either mainstream or altcoins. Do you understand? Why? Because every year's May Day and National Day can push up gold prices for the same reason; I won't elaborate on the supply and demand relationship, you all understand, right?
December still has two scenarios:
Scenario 1. Recently using triangular fluctuations to complete indicator recovery and restore market confidence.
Macro environment: There are international news pressuring prices or causing sell-offs!
The pattern is: BTC is currently at the peak of wave 5, having completed a small level B wave rebound, which we discussed in our video a few days ago, and then it will move down in wave C. Target prices are 90,000-85,000. After that, following a triangular fluctuation and the panic selling of international profit-taking, the price will quickly bounce back to 72,500. It will test the previous historical highs and then complete the transition from support to resistance. After this, we will observe the strength to reassess the market.
Contagion effect: Altcoins will still bounce for a while, but with the emergence of panic selling, there will be a massive slaughter! A sea of despair!
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Scenario 2: The triangle remains unchanged, and after a pullback, it completes a small level of testing since it is the profit-taking position of the bullish part. However, it will still attract more retail investors to enter! Pushing for higher prices, 100,000-130,000, I can only see 130,000 for now. I have been saying for a year that I will hold all BTC at this price position.
Macro environment: As long as Trump is in office, forget about BTC prices returning to 20,000 or 30,000. Abandon the fantasy and face reality. This is my basis for holding over 40,000 BTC, reducing positions at 97,500 but not fully exiting.
The pattern is: the extension of the big wave 5! 99% of those who can read this article have never experienced more than two cycles of bull and bear markets, so they naturally do not understand the power of a bull market. They blindly short, and this round of bull market will inevitably result in losses, and future losses will be even greater. The extended wave 5 will push prices higher in small increments, ultimately accelerating madly to complete the peak! As shown in the diagram:
It will be exceptionally torturous, making you think you've reached the top step by step, but in reality: steady and steady, step by step to win! It feels like standing on Mount Tai, overlooking all other mountains; in reality, you are just at the base of Everest!
Effect: Altcoins are ushering in a carnival season, which is also what I've reminded everyone recently. The super bull market for altcoins in 2024 has not yet come; it’s not crazy enough yet. Perhaps it is already on the way but hasn't been fully felt. It's not intense enough; the intensity hasn't arrived yet. Perhaps the prices of many coins you see now are just at the peak of Mount Tai! Yet you are at the foot of Everest!
The above two scenarios will not be modified in the short term. There is no hunting strategy for altcoins; we will revolve around the two. Recently, I've been trading with one or two coin friends for a couple of months, and my feeling is just twofold:
1. Latent type, mostly low-level spot positions. The ratio of people is high, with many newcomers. This is normal, so I will open my small bull trend tracking system for those in need of coins. In every round of the bull market, it has achieved very good results. I also trade in spot, with cycles much larger than yours, on a monthly basis.
Taking DOGE as an example:
2. Short-term contract hunting type:
Just like me, doing short-term contracts on the daily line or turning short-term into waves when market sentiment is good, resolving the battle within 15 days, or understanding within the day. Of course, I still emphasize that I have tried all left-side and right-side techniques, studied various indicators, and mastered various strategies. Since last year, I have transformed into leading techniques. Doing waves in leading coins or day trading in leading coins, avoiding any miscellaneous coins. Years of lessons from the market have taught me that the leading technique is the only and most efficient method for dealing with altcoins. Of course, my fans definitely recognize this technique; otherwise, there wouldn't be hundreds of coin types!
Alright, I'll stop here; it's getting late! Hope this is useful to everyone. If you like it, please follow me. We're almost at 1,000 people; we can live stream and chat. Every day, I trade alone in the trading room, which is quite boring! 😘
