About BTC: The maximum monthly increase and fluctuation value in the history of Bitcoin is 26,000 points, which occurred at the end of the strong period, a total of 4 times. The first 3 times it occurred, the monthly adjustment ended with a needle line and a negative line in the next month. This time is the fourth time. The maximum increase and fluctuation value this month has reached 23,000 points.
The average peak fluctuation of these four times was between 22,000 and 26,000 points, and the actual closing increase was 12,000-18,000 points, with an average of 15,000 points.
Summary: In the next half month, short-term players will short around the peak of 93,000-95,000. If it remains strong, the closing price of Bitcoin this month may be in the range of 85,000-88,000. The opening price of this month is 70,200. If the price of Bitcoin this month appears at 98,000, it is very necessary to intervene in short selling. The risk value of the next month is this month's closing price + (10,000-12,000), which is an excellent short position.
The average depth of the callback after reaching the peak three times in the past was between 25,000 and 53,000 points (see Figure 2), and the average was 35,000 to 40,000 points. Therefore, when trading in cycles, do not think that the next thing is impossible because of the current market situation. The above is objective and referenceable data.
My personal opinion: From the daily and weekly levels, Bitcoin is far away from EMA200. I call this situation "high hanging", which is also an extremely optimistic market performance. Another point, as shown in the figure, Bitcoin is now at the upper edge of the rising channel of the large cycle, and the probability of a one-time breakthrough is extremely small. In any case, there is a strong demand for a pullback at this moment, and the deepest pullback can reach the range of 38,000-48,000. If I want to arrange long orders for the long term, I will only buy the bottom near this area. From my bullish perspective, the price of Bitcoin in a real bull market will be between $160,000 and $180,000, but this is just my observation and inference of the bull market based on the trading volume. It may appear, but it may never appear in a lifetime. After all, when Bitcoin reaches this price, its market value will reach nearly $5 trillion, which will surpass Microsoft, Apple and Nvidia. This is a challenge to Wall Street capital and a challenge to the status of gold. I will never think that a new-age product, virtual game currency, created by a personal team, can be on par with and pose the slightest threat to gold, which has experienced thousands of years of human civilization and world wars to reach a global consensus. Gold is a native product of the earth, and Bitcoin is just a bunch of tulips.
The Air Force Commander-in-Chief teaches you how to do T in the safest way and how to short sell during a whole short market. It is impossible to get a margin call.
#市场回调，观望还是上车？ #美国CPI公布后降息预期上升 $BTC
