Xiao Yihang: The king returns at $11.15, and Bitcoin may be sold off!
In November, Bitcoin bulls completely reversed the situation. This rise exceeded the expectations of all bears, evolving from a short-term rebound into an epic mid-term surge.
Since the National Day, the U.S. dollar index has accumulated an increase of more than 6%. The strong return of the U.S. dollar does not suppress Bitcoin. The core point is mainly around the policy direction of Trump after he came to power. People are afraid of him coming, and they are also afraid that he will mess up. In addition, the Federal Reserve cooperates with monetary policy and no longer vigorously implements the interest rate cut policy. This makes the market doubt whether the bull market is still there?
However, these speculations are only explanations for the causes of the current rise. No one can be sure of the policy orientation of the new president after taking office. Will he continue to expand the debt, save the U.S. economy by lowering interest rates, or by cutting government spending?
In addition, the inflation data of CPI in October rebounded. The premise of interest rate cut is that inflation returns to normal (2%). The side effect of a large interest rate cut will trigger a rebound in inflation. The Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points for the first time this year. The excessive force caused inflation to rebound, which will lead to a slowdown in the pace of interest rate cuts in December, which is not conducive to the current rise of Bitcoin in the short term. So pay attention to the callback at high levels!
The market is no longer overly concerned about the US debt, nor does it believe that the dollar's hegemony has gone bankrupt. If the market is worried about the US fiscal problems, it will not rush to sell. Judging from the current market situation, due to the previous over-pessimism about the US economy and the dollar, Trump's coming to power has restored confidence, resulting in a continuous increase in the momentum for Bitcoin to rise.
The most fundamental reason is that the strength of the US dollar has led to a sharp depreciation of non-US currencies. In order to mitigate the impact of the depreciation of the domestic currency, it is necessary to increase holdings of US debt again to hedge risks! Buying Bitcoin is to diversify foreign exchange reserves, while buying US dollars is to balance risks.
No matter how Bitcoin has risen in the past, the U.S. dollar has not fundamentally fallen. That is to say, the U.S. dollar is still a safe-haven asset, especially the first choice. Bitcoin is an anchor to replace the U.S. dollar, but it is not a new carrier currency. It is impossible for countries to use Bitcoin for trade and transactions. The recent return of the strong U.S. dollar may drive the decline of Bitcoin.
The characteristics of the adjustment market are that the high point moves down and the low point breaks. Today, we will focus on the high point of the early morning rebound of 89,700 and the pressure of the top and bottom conversion of the day before yesterday, 90,600.
The area of 87,000-86,000 has been the key pressure point for bulls and bears in recent days. Today it touched 87,000 and rebounded continuously. The rebound today can only mean that there is support here, but it is not enough to prove that it is the bottom.
Therefore, after Bitcoin rebounded, we will focus on the position of 89700 long-short dividing point today. Once the support of 87000 is broken, it will continue to move closer to 85500 or even lower. The previous high point of the top-bottom conversion is the key to measure the long-short turning point. In recent days, the market has really started to rise every afternoon, and the short position near 88000 that I arranged in the morning was stopped out. Now that it rebounded to the early morning pressure area, I will short again: 89200-89300 short orders continue to enter the market, stop loss 90300, target 86500-85500
The first time it touches 85500-85300, the stop loss is 84500, and the target is 86800-87200
If it falls below 85000, give up the long position, then go to 84100-83800 and buy again, stop loss at 83000, target 85800-86600
The above suggestions are for reference only. If the market conditions change or plans change during trading, we will notify you separately.
