Original title: Certainly Bullish State of the Market & What's Next #4
Original author: Ignas
Original source: https://www.ignasdefi.com/
Translated by: Daisy, Mars Finance
Assuming the 4-year cycle continues, Bitcoin is expected to reach a new all-time high in the fourth quarter of 2025.
We always like to say “this time is different”, but I’d rather see the classic pattern: Bitcoin goes up, followed by Ethereum, SOL, and other large-cap coins, and then all other coins (probably especially meme coins) start to soar.
Until the market reaches a turning point, we will enter a two-year cooling-off period again.
After a year of crazy growth, we will be exhausted and a two-year rest period will be just right.
As early as mid-2023, Delphi Research predicted a peak in the fourth quarter of 2025.
This prediction is gradually being realized. The only difference is that ETH's approval is still absent, while Bitcoin reached its previous historical high in March due to the FOMO of the BTC ETF.
Full respect to Delphi!
Everything seems to be going according to plan, and if Trump wins the election, it may bring more favorable cryptocurrency regulation, and we may see the final catalyst for an extremely crazy bull market.
This bullish sentiment is in stark contrast to the “slightly uncertain bullish” market state I shared in July. Today, there is no more pressure from Grayscale ETF redemptions, no more fear of a sell-off at Mt. Gox, no more election uncertainty, and global interest rates are falling.
Delphi also predicts that China will start printing money due to deflation risks
In fact, China has launched the most aggressive stimulus policy since the outbreak of the epidemic, but many people believe that the strength is still insufficient and call for China to further print "useless fiat currency."
Historically, when China injects liquidity, it usually has a positive impact on the global economy and crypto markets.
On the X platform, few seemed to be noticing China’s bullish stance on cryptocurrencies: not just money printing, but possible changes to restrictive regulations on cryptocurrencies.
Furthermore, past Bitcoin halving events have ultimately triggered massive BTC rallies, but they typically took about half a year to fully manifest — and that is exactly the case this time.
If all goes as expected, this will be the most predicted and easiest bull market in history.
Just how bullish is the market?
Research from Capriole Investments provides some in-depth charts worth watching.
Its flagship Capriole Bitcoin Macro Index aggregates over 60 key Bitcoin-related metrics, including on-chain data (such as dormant flow, supply, hashband, active addresses, etc.), macroeconomic indicators, and stock market indicators.
The index is divided into multiple phases. We are currently in the second expansion phase, but have not yet reached the highs of March 2024 and are well below the market peaks of 2017 and 2021.
Summary: Bullish.
The founder of Capriole predicts that Bitcoin will reach at least $140,000 by the fourth quarter of 2025. I asked him directly about Ethereum, and he said it will “definitely reach $5,000, and maybe even higher.”
If this prediction is too low for you and you believe in technical analysis, then the peak prediction for Bitcoin is $210,000.
This chart uses the MVRV Z-score to show whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued. Past Peaks: Bitcoin peaked when the Z-score reached above 7. Current Levels: The Z-score is now only 2.9, indicating that we are far from reaching the market top. Prediction: If we reach previous peak levels, Bitcoin could reach $210,000
I expect the same market pattern as the last cycle as I am heavily invested in SOL, ETH as well as DeFi and meme coins.
When Bitcoin started to rise, many people were frustrated because their altcoins did not follow Bitcoin. Be patient, dear "degens". After Bitcoin rises, altcoins should follow.
Moreover, altcoins still have a lot of room to grow.
The Altcoin Speculation Index, also from Capriole Investments, shows that the altcoin rally has not yet begun. A high percentage indicates speculative sentiment, while a low percentage indicates capitulation and may bring better altcoin opportunities.
No matter how you look at it, things seem too good to be true. That's worrying.
We have just entered the realm of extreme greed.
However, greed can last longer. From November 2020 to March 2021, the Greed Index remained above 80 with few pullbacks (Source: Crypto Koryo).
Anyway, even if everything looks bullish, we still need a cool-down period, so don’t just rely on leverage to chase the upside. As Raoul Pal said…
Meme Coin
I read an article the other day in the Financial Times titled “Bitcoin’s big moment can’t be ignored.”
It's really interesting to read the comments from ordinary people. You know: Ponzi scheme, scam, "no use", etc.
These so-called smart people just don't understand. Then it dawned on me.
Crypto natives reject meme coins the same way regular people reject Bitcoin: scam, no use, no value, etc.
Bitcoin is to the average person what memecoins are to skeptical crypto natives. Despite this, both continue to rise and are impossible to ignore. Just look at the performance of memecoins after the election. The main memecoin has risen 2x in 10 days.
Memecoins have crossed the Rubicon: Binance and even Coinbase listing memecoins is a major step towards normalizing memecoins.
Just before listing a bunch of meme coins, Binance released a study on meme coins, noting that retail investors are exploring new avenues for wealth creation and that meme coins embody the principles of enhanced transparency and accessibility by “working to reduce insider advantage and increase equal accessibility to investors around the world.”
Meme coins reflect “broader changes in how value and cultural meaning are intertwined in the modern financial landscape.”
Binance needs to list assets that will go up, but low float, high FDV tokens often can't do that. That's why I expect more meme coins to be listed on Binance.
If you’re still skeptical about meme coins, I’ve got a few that have outperformed them recently and might reignite your faith in crypto.
Desci
Decentralized Science (DeSci) tokens outperformed meme coins last month, only LRT performed better (surprised?)
Memecoin MTD performance ranked third
DeSci's goal is to make scientific research more open, accessible and transparent, giving researchers direct access to funding and data. Its philosophy is that "patients, scientists and investors co-initiate, develop and co-own new medicines and treatments outside of the traditional pharmaceutical industry."
Check out Simon's tweet on why he's bullish on DeSci.
In his years of experience in scientific research, he has seen how funding pressures can lead to falsification of research results, even at top institutions like Oxford. DeSci can prevent this through transparent funding management and peer review mechanisms and promote decentralized control of research.
If that’s not enough to make you bullish, just last week Binance invested in Bio Protocol (valuation and amount undisclosed), which should put DeSci on your radar.
“BIO is an autonomous, community-owned platform for launching scientific communities – just like Pump Fun and Daos Fun did for memecoins, BIO will make curating, forming, and funding scientific communities fun, accessible, and open.”
Think of Bio as the Y Combinator of on-chain science, with BioDAOs providing funding, development, and ownership for projects in areas such as rare diseases, mental health, and longevity.
Some of BioDAO’s tokens are already trading (and rising):
VitaDAO: Funding and supporting early longevity research. VITA doubled in a week, with a current market value of $79 million.
HairDAO: A cyber nation that solves the problem of hair loss. HAIR’s current market value is $100 million.
I actually invested in Bio’s public sale. The token economics are interesting, but we can simplify it with a meme:
If all that wasn’t enough to make you bullish, just last week Binance invested in Bio Protocol (valuation and amount undisclosed), which should put DeSci on your radar.
“BIO is an autonomous, community-owned platform for launching scientific communities – just like Pump Fun and Daos Fun did for memecoins, BIO will make curating, forming, and funding scientific communities fun, accessible, and open.”
Think of Bio as the Y Combinator of on-chain science, with BioDAOs providing funding, development, and ownership for projects in areas such as rare diseases, mental health, and longevity.
Some of BioDAO’s tokens are already trading (and rising):
VitaDAO: Funding and supporting early longevity research. VITA doubled in a week, with a current market value of $79 million.
HairDAO: A cyber nation that solves the problem of hair loss. HAIR’s current market value is $100 million.
I actually invested in Bio’s public sale. The token economics are interesting, but we can simplify it with a meme:
Overall, if memecoins got you down, DeSci is your redemption trade. Since crypto is the best tool for funding communities, I hope DeSci can grow and help crypto have real-world impact.
Solana and Ethereum
Oh my dear ETH, when will it soar? My position is getting bigger and bigger as I watch memecoins rise. FOMO tempts me to move to stronger investments, but I hold on tight - hoping I am right.
In this crypto cycle, the biggest wealth generation opportunity will be if ETH and the entire Ethereum ecosystem fails to usher in a bull run.
Because the funds needed to drive ETH, which has a market value of $382 billion, old DeFi, and emerging low-circulation, high-FDV tokens may be better suited to flow into multiple new areas in this cycle: DeSci, Runes, DeFi on Solana and other L1s, and memecoins.
Ethereum and DeFi players have become rich in the last cycle. They all expect another 3-5 times increase so that they can retire. Maybe we won’t give them this opportunity this time? Let them keep working harder for a little longer.
The funds required to triple ETH could increase other ecosystems that bring new ideas 10 times.
This is very likely.
Justin Drake’s recently proposed ETH 3.0 (Beam Chain) roadmap failed to excite the community. More importantly, it will be launched in the late 2020s, completely missing the current cycle.
Solana, on the other hand, performed strongly.
A recent study released by Syncracy provides a clear comparison of the competition between Ethereum and Solana.
In the last cycle, Solana’s story was about future potential, but this time it’s the momentum brought by fundamentals.
Take a look at the network activity comparison relative to ETH. Worth noting are: TVL growth, DEX and stablecoin trading volume, and active addresses.
To be fair, the comparison of Solana to ETH L1 is somewhat unfair, as Ethereum’s L2 should also be taken into account. But since L2 is still seen as parasitic on Ethereum, the value of L2 is still unclear in the minds of retail investors.
Even if we look at dApp revenue levels, Solana’s dapps are now comparable to Ethereum’s.
Still, Solana’s market cap is only 33% of Ethereum’s, despite strong economic indicators, suggesting Solana still has room to grow and could reach parity with Ethereum’s market cap.
Is SOL really outperforming ETH? I believe that when this narrative becomes stronger, it may be a good time to return to ETH.
ETH flipping BTC has been the best signal of an ETH/BTC market top.
