The U.S. October CPI will be announced at 21:30 Beijing time. Many friends believe that the pullback in the past two days is due to the risk aversion of some investors towards CPI. As for whether it is difficult to have a clear answer, we will see it more clearly after the CPI is released.
First of all, let me talk about my personal opinion. I don’t think the current CPI has much impact.
One is that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is unlikely to change because of one month’s data. As early as the September interest rate meeting, Powell publicly stated that the expectation at the time was two 25s, and the dot plot also showed this.
Some friends may ask, what if CPI rises? Wouldn’t it affect the Fed’s judgment?
In fact, the Fed is looking at the core PCE. Although the core PCE can be inferred from the CPI (core) data, it may not be very accurate. Secondly, in Powell’s two speeches, he almost predicted the possibility of repeated inflation and said that he would look at more data, and even denied the possibility of raising interest rates again under normal circumstances. So I think today’s impact on the Fed is not much, but it may have an impact on user sentiment!
After all, judging from the data expected by the market, except for the possible increase in the broad CPI, everything else is the same as last month, and the broad CPI (CPI annual rate) is also the most concerned by everyone, so when the data is the same as expected, it is not ruled out that there will be a small wave of selling in the market, but it is likely to be only short-term. Unless the CPI data increases significantly, it should not affect the current BTC trend. Of course, if the data is lower than expected, after all, it is the data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, then it will definitely be good for the market. But the actual benefits will also be very limited. At this stage, more games are in the economy, not necessarily in inflation.
