The market’s closing in on 90k, and combining multiple indicators with the overall bull cycle, here’s my take: the bull run isn’t over, but a short-term pullback is likely on the horizon.
While the bull market is still in play, that doesn’t rule out a correction ahead. Right now, we’re not seeing any topping signals, so keep steady and patient. Remember that cup-and-handle pattern I mentioned earlier? Even at new highs, we’re likely looking at wave after wave upward. We’re currently in the first wave, with adjustments and further highs to come. This isn’t a sprint but a step-by-step climb.
Looking at key factors:
1. On-chain Data – Bitcoin supply on-chain suggests we’re nearing a high-risk zone in the short term. A significant pullback could happen anywhere between 90k-110k. Price vacuum zones at 77-79k and 82-86k suggest limited support in those areas, making 81k or below 77k more likely support levels.
2. CME Futures Gap – Last weekend’s CME Bitcoin futures gap from 77k-80k also points to a probable near-term dip, as historical data shows a high likelihood of filling gaps within a month.
3. Open Interest & Liquidations – With over $5 billion in liquidations around 72k and $3 billion near 77k, a pullback in the 70-77k range appears reasonable.
4. Market Sentiment – The current sentiment is overheated, with a greed index of 87. MEME coins are seeing a strong FOMO wave, fueled by Binance listings and market speculation. When MEME sentiment peaks, it often signals an imminent market cool-off—so cautious positioning is advisable.
5. Altcoin Season – Altcoins remain stable, with Bitcoin dominance near 60%, indicating we’re still on a bull path without a major offloading of BTC holdings.
Conclusion: The market may continue its upward push, but expect resistance around the 100k psychological barrier, potentially triggering a cooling-off period. Any dip below 80k is a likely buying opportunity, with a bottom around 70k. Medium- to long-term, the bull cycle remains intact, with no clear signs of a top just yet.