The market is once again approaching the 90,000 position. Considering various data and the bull market cycle, the madman first makes a judgment that the bull market has not ended, and a short-term correction is imminent.

The bull market has not ended, which does not mean the market won't correct. It just means there are currently no signs of a peak. Stay calm and patiently brace yourself. Do you remember the cup and handle candlestick chart I showed you before? Even after reaching a new high, there are still waves of movements. We are currently in the first wave, and there will be adjustments and new highs afterward. The progress of the bull market is not a one-time event but requires a platform to rise step by step.

Specifically regarding the price points and how it will move, considering several factors: first is the on-chain data, second is the long-short ratio and strength of contracts, third is the CME futures gap data, fourth is market sentiment, and fifth is the altcoin season situation.

First, let's discuss the correction points. On-chain data shows that the current on-chain Bitcoin supply situation is nearing short-term risk extremes, which means the market may experience a significant correction at any position between 90,000 and 110,000. From the perspective of chip distribution, there are significant vacuum periods between 77,000-79,000 and 82,000-86,000. It is difficult to find decent support at these positions, so true correction support may only occur below 81,000 or 77,000.

Similarly, the CME futures gap data also demonstrates this characteristic. Over the weekend, CME Bitcoin futures formed a gap between 77,000 and 80,000. Based on historical data, the probability of the gap being filled within a week is 45%, two weeks is 61%, three weeks is 80%, and the overall probability of filling the gap is 94%. Therefore, we should believe that there is a high probability of a correction to around 77,000 within the month, which aligns with the on-chain data.

Looking at the long-short ratio of contracts, when it drops to 72,000, over 5 billion will be liquidated; when it drops to 77,000, over 3 billion will be liquidated. Thus, the conclusion I provide for the correction position in the range of 70,000 to 77,000 should be relatively reasonable. In a bull market, don’t be afraid of sudden drops; be brave and pick up chips.

The current market sentiment is overheated, with the greed index reaching 87, and there is a FOMO sentiment in the MEME coin sector. So far in this bull market, the only main line has been MEME. Whether it’s Binance's listing direction or the market hype, everything is focused on MEME. Therefore, the emergence of FOMO sentiment in MEME also means that a short-term correction is not far off, and I do not recommend betting with large positions.

The overall situation of the altcoin season is still okay. Bitcoin's dominance is still close to 60%, even slightly up from a couple of days ago. This indicates that we are still in the progress of the bull market, and the chips have not been largely distributed.

Based on the above logic, a simple conclusion can be drawn: the market may continue to rise in the short term, but the psychological expectation of hitting the 100,000 mark may lead to an overheated correction in the short term. The correction point is unlikely to drop below 70,000, and below 80,000 is the time to gradually pick up chips. The medium to long-term bull market progress has not changed, and no peak structure has appeared yet, so we do not consider the possibility of the bull market ending for now.

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