1. Price Trend
• Long-term Trend: Bitcoin is currently trading near its all-time high (ATH) of 88,364 USD, achieved on November 11, 2024. The current price is only slightly below the ATH, indicating that the upward momentum is still very strong.
• Strength of Short-term Trend: With an increase of about 8.29% in the last 24 hours, Bitcoin is in a clear uptrend. This indicates strong buying power, especially as the recent 24-hour trading volume reached 123.56 billion USD, reflecting significant interest from investors.
2. Technical Indicators
• Moving Average (MA): If we use common MA levels like MA(50) and MA(200), Bitcoin has far exceeded these levels, indicating that the uptrend is still very strong and sustainable. Specifically:
• MA(50) and MA(200) may currently be much lower than the current price, reflecting the strong upward momentum of the market in recent times.
• MACD: When prices rise higher, MACD usually rises above the signal line, indicating a clear and strong uptrend. Be cautious of divergence if it occurs, when MACD starts to decline while prices continue to rise, which could be a sign of weakening.
• RSI: The RSI index may be in the overbought zone (>70). This indicates market excitement but also warns of potential short-term corrections.
3. Support and Resistance Levels
• Resistance: The historical high of 88,364 USD is the nearest resistance. If Bitcoin surpasses this level with high volume, it may continue the upward trend, reaching new targets in the future.
• Support: Important support levels lie around MA lines, for example, MA(50), around 73,000 - 75,000 USD, and a lower level is MA(200), which helps maintain the uptrend.
4. Trading Volume
• High trading volume along with rising prices indicates strong buying pressure. If volume gradually decreases while prices continue to rise, a weakening signal may appear, requiring further observation.
5. Market Sentiment Analysis
• FOMO Psychology: When prices approach ATH levels, many new investors may get caught in FOMO (fear of missing out) psychology, increasing the likelihood of volatility.
• Profit-Taking Sentiment: When prices approach peaks, some long-term investors may start taking profits, causing short-term corrections.
6. Trading Strategy
• If you are holding: It is recommended to continue holding but keep an eye on technical signals to identify signs of weakening.
• If you want to buy: Consider buying when there is a pullback to support levels, avoiding chasing high prices to reduce risk.
• If you want to sell: Take profits when prices hit resistance or when there are reversal signals.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is in a strong uptrend but may face short-term corrections as prices reach the resistance area near ATH. The strategy should be flexible, monitoring technical indicators and market sentiment to make appropriate decisions.
