Let's talk briefly about interest rate cuts.
Now the square is full of questions about whether there will be interest rate cuts in December.
First, let me put a forewarning: there is a 64.9% chance of a 25 basis point interest rate cut.
Now the US economy is slowing down a bit, and inflation is not so serious, which gives the Fed an opportunity to consider cutting interest rates.
Cutting interest rates is like giving the economy a "chicken blood injection", which makes people more willing to spend money and invest by reducing the cost of borrowing money.
But interest rate cuts also have their side effects, such as the dollar may depreciate and affect international capital flows.
If the Fed really cuts interest rates in December, it will be a move to deal with the economic slowdown.
It is generally believed that interest rate cuts can reduce pressure on the economy and help employment and consumption.
However, asset prices may rise after the interest rate cut, and financial markets may become more turbulent.
Looking further ahead, CME data also shows that by January next year, the probability that the Fed may keep interest rates unchanged is 22.4%, the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut is 54.1%, and the probability of a 50 basis point interest rate cut is 23.6%. This means that everyone generally believes that the Fed may continue to relax its policies.
To put it bluntly, whether the Fed cuts interest rates or not, this matter is very important to the economy and financial markets. What we can do is to adapt to the situation
